Iskander

I realize that 50/50 could be perceived as something of a cop-out, but I generally perceive it as being something of a flip of the coin. A key factor/potential black swan event for me is the potential death of the Dalai Lama, who is sadly ailing. The Sino-Indian rivalry is deeply rooted and complex. As academic observers of the relationship have noted, it can best be described as a ‘compound’ rivalry – a form of competition which spans several areas and involves multiple issues, all of which bleed into each other. It is positional, ideological and spatial, and draws on several interlocking mutual grievances, from China’s history of military and diplomatic support to Pakistan, to India’s growing proximity to the United States and its democratic allies. At the knotty heart of Sino-Indian discord, however, lies the border issue, at the centre of which, in turn, features the question of Tibet. If the Dalai Lama were to pass, and his reincarnation to occur on Indian (and Chinese-claimed) soil, this would have a hugely inflammatory effect, both within the Tibetan autonomous region, which would likely be convulsed by mass protests and brutal crackdowns, and on Sino-Indian relations along the LAC.

I was a South Asia expert for much of my career, and specialized on Sino-Indian border issues.  For those, who are interested, I've included three publications--one on the military balance along the LAC, one on the Tibetan issue, and another which was a scenario-building exercise for the Stimson Center, whereby Indian forces inadvertently killed Chinese military personnel on Pakistani soil. (Two are attached, one can be downloaded here:) 

https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/nwc-review/vol70/iss1/6/