Based on current trends of 572 per month (2,289 over Jan-April), it is unlikely that incidents will decrease to below or equal 500. While a ceasefire may be possible, it seems unlikely given current trends in escalation.
0.133265
Relative Brier Score
3
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
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New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
Less than or equal to 500
12%
Between 501 and 750, inclusive
18%
Between 751 and 1000, inclusive
37%
Between 1001 and 1250, inclusive
27%
More than or equal to 1251
Why do you think you're right?
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Why might you be wrong?
If there are significant diplomatic breakthroughs before August, this may prove to be incorrect.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
12%
Yes
88%
No
Why do you think you're right?
I think this question turns on the “confrontation,” which is defined to exclude accidental or non-combat deaths (which may be more likely). There is some historical evidence that confrontations have occurred, and culminated in deaths (e.g., the skirmishes in June 2020). But the odds of another significant confrontation by this September do not seem to be extremely likely, especially with escalating India-Pakistan tensions.
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Why might you be wrong?
It is difficult to predict emergent situations like conflicts and there is a lack of historical data and trends.
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Why do you think you're right?
The language of the resolution heavily tilts the probability towards "No." A groundbreaking ceremony or construction would likely take years of advanced planning (precedent from Djibouti suggests a timeframe of around 1-2 years), so the likelihood of this occurring before 2027 seems unlikely. While it may be somewhat more likely that there are unofficial reports of negotiations or an agreement, these scenarios do not count towards resolution.
Why might you be wrong?
The resolution does specify that a logistical or support facility would count if used for use by PLA, and China has shown significant interest in expanding its military presence across Africa, including the media reports indicating interest in Gabon and other countries.