Putin's maximalist demands haven't changed since 2022. The red lines of Ukraine and Russia are too far away for a compromise.
-0.012118
Relative Brier Score
4
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Comments | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Questions Forecasted | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
0%
(-5%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
0%
(-5%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
1%
(-9%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
99%
(+19%)
Not before 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Ukraine could be forced to submit with US threatening to pull its support.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Yes
90%
No
Why do you think you're right?
His rating is already at 43% and it will only get worse from here in the next two months, following a common trend from other presidencies. This will be compounded by his capriciousness and overall, by his misguided policies that ultimately will hurt Americans (e.g. higher inflation). It's hard to see how he can reverse the trend.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
He may conjure some good PR by giving a non-consequential event his typical trump-esque spin. Some random, events like another assasination attempt may result in "rally round the flag" effect which may bump his approval ratings.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
5%
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
5%
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
10%
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
80%
Not before 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Putin is not interested in the ceasefire as in his mind - Russia is on a path to victory. What's that? The total subjugation of Ukraine. The way to achieve it is isolating Ukraine and driving it to a military collapse. A crucial element in that plan is breaking western resolve in providing financial and military help to Ukraine. Since, the only language Putin understands is that of strength, it follows that western attempts to kick-start peace negotiations are perceived as a sign of weakness. Russia is losing about 30,000 soldiers each month, about as much as its recruiting monthly. It earns about 20bn euro monthly from oil imports. From Putin's perspective it's not a problem to continue the war for another 12-18 months.
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Why might you be wrong?
US foreign policy is driven by a capricious 70-something toddler's mood swings and gut feeling. US assistance is of vital importance and if for some reason it's withdrawn (even temporarily) it may disrupt the defence efforts of Ukraine military and lead to front collapse. In such an event, Ukraine may plead for a ceasefire and peace negotiations.
On the other hand there's a small chance that Russia will undergo some sort of crisis or putsch (3 such attempts in last 34 years giving a base rate of 8%, none leading to a change in power though).
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Unlikely the case while the front Ukraine has to be held.
Why might you be wrong?
Invasion might be seen as an effective mean to divert Europe's attention and resources away from Ukraine.