Recent polls give Cuomo 30% of votes and 8-12 points lead, which is very similar to Eric L. Adams's % of votes in 2021 NYC primary elections. Back then, it took 8 rounds for Eric L. Adams to win the elections. Given the fact there's a number of moderate candidates and Cuomo appearing to be a polarising figure, some voters might omit him entirely, which will drag the elections into a longer race.
-0.088725
Relative Brier Score
4
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
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New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
Yes
85%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Cuomo's experience and brand recognition might appeal to a broader audience and give him second-choice voters which will be enough to clear a victory.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
100%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Highly unlikely, as junta controls only small part of the country's territory and does not have resources to organise elections
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The only scenario is if military junta organises sham elections in controlled territories and fakes the results
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
Moldova
1%
Armenia
1%
Georgia
1%
Kazakhstan
Why do you think you're right?
A second front is highly unlikely, as the ongoing military conflict with Ukraine continues to strain Russia’s human resources and place a heavy burden on its economy. Escalating tensions with Armenia or Kazakhstan appears unrealistic, given that both countries offer economic and financial advantages to Russia under the current sanctions regime. Moreover, their foreign policies remain largely amicable toward Moscow, with Kazakhstan’s president in particular maintaining cordial relations with President Putin. Furthermore, dependance on China's support will deter Russia from any military conflict in Central Asia. Meanwhile, Georgia’s government signaled its willingness to sever ties with the European Union in 2024, aligning more closely with Russia. As for Moldova, its geographic distance makes it an improbable candidate for direct involvement in a new front.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
While a second front remains highly unlikely due to Russia’s resource constraints and the strategic value of maintaining good relations with neighboring allies, geopolitical dynamics can shift rapidly
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Highly unlikely
Why might you be wrong?
Accident