GV

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2025 Season Stats

-0.028228

Relative Brier Score

39

Forecasts

1

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 
Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 1 39 39 39
Comments 0 1 24 24 24
Questions Forecasted 0 1 12 12 12
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 1 1 1
 Definitions
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GV earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?
Refining based on remaining time frame and the current dynamics
Files
Why might you be wrong?
.
Files
New Prediction
How much more military aid will European countries allocate to Ukraine compared to the U.S. between 24 January 2022 and 31 December 2025?
GV made their 5th forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Europe allocates the same amount or less than the U.S.
0% (0%)
More than €0 but less than €10 billion
0% (0%)
At least €10 billion but less than €20 billion
37% (0%)
At least €20 billion but less than €30 billion
63% (0%)
€30 billion or more
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?
GV made their 4th forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
0% (0%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
0% (0%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
0% (-5%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
100% (+5%)
Not before 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Russia still does not have much reasons to agree to a ceasefire, and the remaining timeframe for this question is rather short for anything to change dramatically. 
Files
Why might you be wrong?
A black swan that would change everything
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

With a program to pursue US-produced equipment, it is far more likely.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

Ukraine needs munition for HIMARS far more than system. The current focus is likely to be more on air defence too and the remaining time frame is rather shrot

Files
New Prediction
Will the European “Coalition of the Willing” deploy forces to Ukraine in 2025?
GV made their 3rd forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
1% (0%)
Yes
99% (0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?
GV made their 3rd forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
77% (0%)
Less than 30 days
14% (0%)
30 days
5% (0%)
31-60 days
3% (0%)
61-90 days
1% (0%)
91 days or more
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
GV made their 3rd forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
6% (0%)
Moldova
2% (0%)
Armenia
3% (0%)
Georgia
1% (0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
GV made their 3rd forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
4% (0%)
Estonia
4% (0%)
Latvia
4% (0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Files
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