Recent months trends indicates upward pressure.
-0.049396
Relative Brier Score
4
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
66%
Yes
34%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The historical data still fluctuates quite a bit.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 70
3%
(0%)
Between 71 and 74, inclusive
35%
(0%)
Between 75 and 78, inclusive
41%
(0%)
Between 79 and 82, inclusive
20%
(0%)
More than or equal to 83
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Less than or equal to 70
3%
Between 71 and 74, inclusive
35%
Between 75 and 78, inclusive
41%
Between 79 and 82, inclusive
20%
More than or equal to 83
Why do you think you're right?
- Trend extrapolation
- They have at least one major release right around the corner, potentially two this year.
- Benchmark saturation
- Improved scaffolding of reasoning agents
Files
Why might you be wrong?
- The release is super delayed for some reason
- No architectural improvements
- Safety concerns limit progress
Files
Why do you think you're right?
GPT - 5 was such a small improvement. I still think they will drop an upgrade this year due to competition pressure but it will likewise be just a small improvement. There is also a fair chance they only announce product upgrades which would mean status quo -> 70 on benchmark.
Why might you be wrong?
- They could have made some breakthrough that is yet to be leaked (I find it unlikely)
- They won’t necessarily publish anything new that would affect the index score.