Confirmed previous forecast
0.327741
Relative Brier Score
32
Forecasts
2
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 32 | 32 | 32 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 16 | 16 | 16 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 11 | 11 | 11 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?
Compare to me
This forecast expired on Nov 30, 2025 08:09PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(0%)
Yes
Oct 31, 2025 to Apr 30, 2026
95%
(0%)
No
Oct 31, 2025 to Apr 30, 2026
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
85%
(0%)
Yes
15%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-4%)
Less than or equal to 59
0%
(-16%)
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
96%
(+54%)
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
4%
(-31%)
Between 80 and 89, inclusive
0%
(-3%)
More than or equal to 90
Why do you think you're right?
Current posted data seems to be 71 currently and we have limited time before the end of the question. If the data provided was correct then this confirms the most accurate range.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
False information, following a bad lead or a source that is not verified and accurate.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 59
16%
(0%)
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
42%
(0%)
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
35%
(0%)
Between 80 and 89, inclusive
3%
(0%)
More than or equal to 90
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
We already have 71 cases
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Oct 17, 2025 03:35PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 17, 2025 to Mar 17, 2026
95%
(0%)
No
Sep 17, 2025 to Mar 17, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
85%
(0%)
Yes
15%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
(+60%)
Less than or equal to 1
0%
(-40%)
Between 2 and 3, inclusive
0%
(-20%)
Between 4 and 5, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 6
Why do you think you're right?
The storm season seems to have been affected by pressure in the troposphere and it has stopped the formation of major hurricanes and even tropical storms as of late. https://www.wtxl.com/weather/peak-hurricane-season-has-been-quiet-heres-why-that-may-change We may see an increase in storms in late September and early October but it seems too late for anything beyond my prediction
Files
Why might you be wrong?
There are unforeseen events in the weather or some form of extreme weather change that could make storms develop in the next 14 days.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Oct 2, 2025 01:45PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 2, 2025 to Mar 2, 2026
95%
(0%)
No
Sep 2, 2025 to Mar 2, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files