I think a peace agreement/ceasefire will either end very quickly or prove long-lasting. If Russia gains territory and can declare a nominal victory (as will likely happen), I doubt they will reinvade. Ukraine will not be the aggressor in a broken ceasefire.
0.512176
Relative Brier Score
3
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
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| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
Less than 30 days
0%
30 days
0%
31-60 days
0%
61-90 days
80%
91 days or more
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Russia may not be satisfied and reinvade at any given point within 90 days of a peace deal.
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
Yes
97%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Barring a resolution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict in which Ukraine cedes no territory, it is very unlikely EU imports of natural gas will increase.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If the Russia-Ukraine conflicts ends peacefully with Russia gaining no additional territory
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Why might you be wrong?
Climate change is unpredictable, and the number of hurricanes may decrease.