I may be right because the increase of victims between August 2023 to 2024 was a total of 51. So an optimistic outcome would be that the next increase will be around that number.
-0.000476
Relative Brier Score
2
Forecasts
0
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New Prediction
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Less than 250
0%
Between 250 and 349, inclusive
0%
Between 350 and 449, inclusive
80%
Between 450 and 549, inclusive
20%
More than or equal to 550
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I may be wrong because the difference between April and March is of 437 victims
Files
Why do you think you're right?
I might be right because the tendency has been a decrease in budget in general from the current management.
Why might you be wrong?
There are multiple reasons for which i might be wrong. But I think the main one is the Geopolitical factor. The investment could increase or decrease depending on how other acorns participate in global conflicts.