Forecasted Questions
Will any national government publicly declare that Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) has been achieved within that country by 31 July 2026?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 21, 2026 03:28PM UTC
(15 hours ago)
Jan 21, 2026 03:28PM UTC
(15 hours ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 100% | 99% | +1% | +0% |
Will an AI-enabled cyber-attack, attributed to a state actor, cause significant disruption to critical national infrastructure in any G20 country before 1 July 2026?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 21, 2026 03:28PM UTC
(15 hours ago)
Jan 21, 2026 03:28PM UTC
(15 hours ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 21% | -20% | -1% |
| No | 99% | 79% | +20% | +1% |
Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 21, 2026 03:28PM UTC
(15 hours ago)
Jan 21, 2026 03:28PM UTC
(15 hours ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 3% | -2% | 0% |
| No | 99% | 97% | +2% | 0% |
Will the FDA have authorized a medical device that incorporates LLM-based functionality by 31 March 2026?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 21, 2026 03:28PM UTC
(15 hours ago)
Jan 21, 2026 03:28PM UTC
(15 hours ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 3% | -3% | +0% |
| No | 100% | 97% | +3% | +0% |