It's crazy to me that this is more likely not to happen, but the world is crazy to me. On their own, these countries are all basically defenseless. I realize none of them have much of a military, and together they still don't, but I would think they'd have at least a "memorandum of understanding" to help each other out. 18% sounds like an estimate someone smarter than me would come up with, so I'm gonna go with that.
0.518183
Relative Brier Score
17
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 112 |
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| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
18%
Yes
82%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I have very limited knowledge of this subject.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
Yes
98%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Doesn't seem like something on any of these countries radar. These entities keep a low profile, I think.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The only reason I can think of would be a major conflict/war. Or the US doing it's semi-irrational bullying thing.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
35%
(-13%)
Less than 30 days
25%
(+9%)
30 days
25%
(+20%)
31-60 days
10%
(+8%)
61-90 days
5%
(-24%)
91 days or more
Why do you think you're right?
Putin's playbook is to use ceasefires for regrouping, not genuine peace. His war aims (complete control of Ukraine) haven't changed, he just needs a breather. Russia would "falsely accuse Ukraine of ceasefire violations" to justify breaking it
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Trump's ego is now on the line - if Putin makes him look like a fool, Trump might actually follow through on those tariff threats (and Putin knows Trump holds grudges like a mob boss). Or maybe I'm underestimating how exhausted both militaries actually are. Alternatively, I could be totally wrong in the other direction - maybe Putin breaks it on day 2 just to mess with everyone's heads, that would be very on-brand for him.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
(+14%)
Less than or equal to 49
30%
(+15%)
Between 50 and 59, inclusive
40%
(-10%)
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
13%
(-17%)
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
2%
(-2%)
More than or equal to 80
Why do you think you're right?
Trump's frustration and threats to "walk away" from peace efforts indicate the conflict will likely continue without major escalation or resolution by late 2025.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Peace talks could actually succeed or spectacularly fail by late 2025.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
It's basically math at this point. We're already at the end of May 2025, and Min Aung Hlaing literally announced in March that elections are planned for December 2025 at the earliest. Plus, the junta only controls about a third of the country and could only conduct their census in less than half the townships. Hard to hold a "national" election when you don't control the nation.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Maybe Min Aung Hlaing will wake up next week and think "You know what? Let's just wing it!" and hold surprise elections in the few areas where his forces can still show their faces without getting shot at.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
It hasn't happened in a long time. Countries that don't agree on anything would have to agree on this.
Why might you be wrong?
The world is an uncertain place.