Review Question
Before 1 April 2023, will the government of the Republic of Srpska declare secession from Bosnia-Herzegovina (BiH), establish a timeline for secession, or schedule a referendum on secession?
| Answer | Initial Probability |
|---|---|
| Yes | 0% |
Author
Description
For the purposes of this question, “secession” for the Republic of Srpska may include the formation of an independent state or joining the Republic of Serbia. This question will be resolved using credible open source media reporting.
In October of 2021, Milorad Dodik, the Serbian representative of Bosnia’s tripartite presidency and the president of the Republic of Srpska, announced that Srpska would be withdrawing from key Bosnian institutions, including the Army (Al Jazeera). Since then, he has continued to spark secessionist flames with nationalist rhetoric (Politico). Growing tensions between Bosnia’s ethnic groups and Srpska's deep ties to Moscow have international observers worried that escalation of this political crisis could lead to the collapse of the Dayton Peace Accords and Russian intervention (Foreign Policy). Previously, in a direct challenge to the Bosnian Constitutional Court and Dayton Accords, the Republic of Srpska held a referendum to establish the Day of Republika Srpska, a holiday celebrating the Republic of Srpska’s 1992 declaration of independence (Politico).
Additional Reading:
Starts
Apr 07, 2022 04:00PM UTC
Closes
Apr 01, 2023 03:59AM UTC
Topics
Geopolitical Security
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@dante What qualifies as a "mainstream" media source? Should there be a definition we can re-use somewhere for what that is?
@yankeeracer73 I've updated the language to "credible open source media reporting", which is the language we've used elsewhere.