Review Question
What is the likelihood that either Russia or China will use an anti-satellite weapon to permanently disable (kinetically or non-kinetically) a U.S. or ally satellite on or before January 1, 2027?
| Answer | Initial Probability |
|---|---|
| Less than 25 | 25% |
| More than or equal to 25 but less than 50 | 25% |
| More than 50 | 50% |
Author
Description
Recent developments in anti-satellite (ASAT) technologies by Russia and China have raised significant international concerns. Russia is reportedly advancing a space-based nuclear ASAT weapon, potentially involving a satellite like Kosmos-2553, which could detonate a nuclear device in orbit to generate an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) capable of disabling satellites over a wide area. U.S. officials have indicated that such a system would violate the Outer Space Treaty, which prohibits placing nuclear weapons in orbit . In April 2024, Russia vetoed a United Nations Security Council resolution aimed at reaffirming the treaty's prohibitions, with its ambassador arguing that the resolution was too narrow in scope .
China, meanwhile, is believed to be developing multiple direct-ascent ASAT (DA-ASAT) systems, such as the SC-19 missile, which has demonstrated capabilities against low Earth orbit (LEO) targets. These systems are likely operational and may be deployed on mobile launchers . Additionally, China is experimenting with co-orbital technologies, including satellites capable of close-proximity operations, which could potentially be used to disable or disrupt other satellites . Despite these advancements, Chinese officials have not publicly stated an intent to employ ASAT weapons against adversaries, and the Chinese government maintains that its space activities are peaceful in nature.
Starts
Sep 01, 2025 09:39PM UTC
Closes
Dec 31, 2025 10:39PM UTC
Topics
No challenges selected
Tags
No tags selected
• 60%: Menos de 25
• 30%: Entre 25 y 49
• 10%: Más de 50
La probabilidad de que Rusia o China utilicen un arma antisatélite antes de 2027 para desactivar un satélite estadounidense o aliado es baja, porque más que usarlas en la práctica, estas tecnologías funcionan como herramienta de presión y disuasión estratégica. Ambos países han invertido en sistemas avanzados, pero lanzarlos contra un satélite de EE. UU. sería un movimiento demasiado arriesgado: violaría tratados internacionales, desataría sanciones y posiblemente hasta un enfrentamiento militar directo.
Sin embargo, podría equivocarme si las tensiones internacionales escalan al punto de que alguno vea un ataque limitado como necesario. Aun así, mi apuesta es que, salvo una crisis grave, lo más probable es que las armas antisatélite sigan siendo una carta de intimidación más que una acción real en estos próximos años.
i like this question
I would suggest adding the caveat "as reported by new york times, washington post, ..."
also, attribution is going to be hard here so maybe nix the russia and china. what about israel or iran or even the good old USA crossing this line?