From 1 August 2022 to 31 July 2023, will ACLED record 10,000 or more civilian fatalities in Ethiopia?
Started
Aug 18, 2022 07:00PM UTC
Closed Aug 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC
Closed Aug 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC
Topics
Seasons
This question will be resolved using the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) project’s dashboard. To count the number of fatalities in Ethiopia for a given time period:
- Adjust the “Event Date” filter to the relevant dates.
- Select “Violence against civilians” from the event type filter.
- Select “Ethiopia” from the Region filter.
- Click “Apply Filters”.
- Change the dropdown box located on the upper right side of the line graph from “Event Count” to “Fatalities”.
Additional Reading:
- The World's Deadliest War Isn't in Ukraine, But in Ethiopia (Washington Post)
- More than 200 civilians have reportedly been killed in an ethnic attack in Ethiopia (NPR)
- Ethiopian Human Rights Commission documents mass civilian casualties (DW)
- More than 50,000 Ethiopia civilians have been killed, Tigray opposition says (LA Times)
Resolution Notes
ACLED reported 1658 fatalities from violence against civilians in Ethiopia from 1 Aug 2022 to 31 July 2023.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0.03% | |
| No | 99.97% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 44 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 61 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 310 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 233 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |