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Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month?

Started Mar 03, 2022 10:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC

While Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has prompted international condemnation, the domestic consequences for Putin are unclear (Bloomberg). The prospect of a prolonged war, mounting casualties, and devastating economic sanctions will test the depth of his support by the Russian public (CNBC, PBS). 

Outcome will be determined based on data reported by the Levada Center. Bins will be determined by the month of the approval rating. For example, if the May data (displayed as 05.2022 on the site) shows a 47% percent approval rating, the question will resolve on May 2022, even if the 05.2022 data is released in June.  

Question clarification
Issued on 05/23/22 09:34pm
A technical error had prevented this question from being scored. This issue has now been resolved, and this question will be scored each month until either the approval rating drops below 50% or the question closes.
Resolution Notes

Vladimir Putin's lowest approval rating from March 2022 to March 2023 was 77%.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 1.30%
No 98.70%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 175
Average for questions older than 6 months: 60
Number of Forecasts 1073
Average for questions older than 6 months: 220
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Scored Periods

Scores for forecasts between Final Crowd Forecast
Mar 03, 2022 10:00PM UTC - Apr 03, 2022 10:00PM UTC 7%
Apr 03, 2022 10:00PM UTC - May 03, 2022 10:00PM UTC 3%
May 03, 2022 10:00PM UTC - Jun 03, 2022 10:00PM UTC 2%
Jun 03, 2022 10:00PM UTC - Jul 03, 2022 10:00PM UTC 2%
Jul 03, 2022 10:00PM UTC - Aug 03, 2022 10:00PM UTC 1%
Aug 03, 2022 10:00PM UTC - Sep 03, 2022 10:00PM UTC 2%
Sep 03, 2022 10:00PM UTC - Oct 03, 2022 10:00PM UTC 1%
Oct 03, 2022 10:00PM UTC - Nov 03, 2022 10:00PM UTC 0%
Nov 03, 2022 10:00PM UTC - Dec 03, 2022 10:00PM UTC 1%
Dec 03, 2022 10:00PM UTC - Jan 03, 2023 10:00PM UTC 1%
Jan 03, 2023 10:00PM UTC - Mar 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC 1%

Consensus Trend

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