Wild card: What if Israel's supreme court permits drafting the Haradin ["ultra religious," who believe their thoughts and prayers are all the owe Israel], who currently are excused from the draft that applies to all other Israeli men and women? What if they get dragooned out of their enclaves? They might vote differently if their young men (or women, too) have to fight and die to keep up the Gaza war. They surely will riot.
On Sunday, Israeli President Isaac Herzog said on social media that he would give Mr Netanyahu's government his "full support for a deal which will see the release of the hostages".
"It is our inherent obligation to bring them home within the framework of a deal that preserves the security interests of the State of Israel," he said - BBC, June 2
I don't see a deal lasting more than 30 days because in all likelihood neither Hamas or PIJ have more than 50 hostages total. Sad to say but at 2 hostages a day that will terminate in 25 days.
I do see a deal that Haniyeh and Bibi would sign tomorrow.
At this point I don't think Israel can afford Gaza for 8 months. It is diplomatically impossible. It is politically impossible because Gantz and Gallant and IDF want to move on to Hezbollah.
I am going to assume that there will be a deal of some kind but it won't last 30 days and that political pressure to repopulate North of Israel mean that next step is Lebanon and handoff to some Palestinian entity governmental authority with Israeli withdrawal to a security perimeter around Gaza border and road IDF built East West fron US floating pier to Israel border just south of Gaza City.
Israeli Intel says that Hamas and hostages have not exited Gaza. Because Egypt claimed to be unaware of the 60 found by IDF along Philadelphi Corridor, we can't rule out that Sinwar is in or beneath Gaza. We can't even be sure Sinwar or any of the hostages are alive. It appears 2 or 3 are but the proof of life videos released prove nothing.
I said stop and declare victory months ago. Going into Rafah and blocking Hamas tunnels into Egypt was sine qua non of a successful war. Looking back I wonder why IDF did not fo first not last and before 2 million people were shunted into Rafah.
Biden has a good Secretary of Defense and Secretary of State and I hope Netanyahu got the message and starts listening. Basically Biden made an offer no one can refuse, but they have an interlocutor in tunnels for more than 8 months and I am not optimistic that Sinwar if he is alive will accept or if He does can provide 50 living hostages. Sad to say I fear most are dead some are not. Past time to get them out and stop Gaza. I pray most are alive
I don't see a deal lasting more than 30 days because in all likelihood neither Hamas or PIJ have more than 50 hostages total. Sad to say but at 2 hostages a day that will terminate in 25 days.
This does not seem to be the case:
About 120 hostages are still unaccounted for, of whom 40 are thought to have died in the course of the war. - The Guardian, June 3
The inference from this article maybe that less than 40 survive and are under Hamas control or worse there are less than 40 left alive. Best case there are less than 50 civilians left. The 40 referred to in the designated categories if you trust Hamas. I really doubt US and Israel have seen more proof of life videos. If they did Hamas would be releasing those images as part of its brutal propaganda that emphasize civilian deaths in Gaza and alive hostages in captivity.
There is much we don't know that is classified or just unknown and unknowable. Hamas has a perverse incentive to keep everyone guessing and the negotiations continued. If we knew all were dead Haniyeh would be booted out of Doha and dead instead of living in luxury and traveling to Tehran and Moscow. Why should we trust Haniyeh for any fact not independently verified.
I pray they all survive at the figure you cite. 100 percent no one knows including Sinwar and Haniyeh.
Egypt must be involved to get control of hostages and exchange at Rafah crossing dead or alive.
There is already a security vacuum in Gaza let IDF withdraw in phases and let Egypt occupy in phases and Withdraw for some international force. TBD
@Plataea479 In the article you cite, Hamas is stated to have fewer than 40 hostages that are elderly, women, or children. This is fully consistent with them having 80 hostages total still alive, as ctstats cites, as they probably have many male hostages.
@Plataea479 Moreover, why think the proposal involves 2 hostages released every two days? According to al jazeera (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/5/6/text-of-the-ceasefire-proposal-approved-by-hamas) a previous proposal had 3 hostages released after 3 days, then 3 more every 7 days, and then the rest of the hostages released after 6 weeks. Are you sure Hamas doesn't have 15 living hostages? I don't understand your certainty the ceasefire will fall through in under 30 days.
of the 129 remaining hostages abducted by Hamas on October 7, citing intelligence and findings obtained by troops operating in Gaza, the report said that “Israeli and American officials estimate privately that the number of deaths could be much higher.”
Some US estimates indicate that most of the hostages are already dead, American officials familiar with the intelligence told the paper, while stressing that US information on the hostages is limited and depends in part on Israeli intel.
US officials quoted in the report said that some of the hostages had likely been killed by Israeli strikes on Gaza amid the ongoing war, while others had died of health issues, including injuries suffered.
Officials believe hostages who are still alive are being used as human shields surrounding the group’s leadership, hidden deep in Gaza tunnels, the report said.
It came as some reports say Hamas has indicated it is unable to provide 40 living hostages in the category set for initial release under a potential hostage deal — women, children, the elderly, or those requiring medical attention.
The release of other hostages including adult men and captured soldiers is under a separate category.
According to Kan news, Israel has insisted that 40 living hostages must be freed under any first phase, and that Hamas must make up for any shortage in one category with individuals from another.
US, Israeli officials fear most hostages held by Hamas are dead — report
Palestinian terrorists drive back to the Gaza Strip with the body of Shani Louk, a German-Israeli dual citizen who was murdered at the Supernova music festival on Saturday, Oct. 7, 2023. (AP Photo/Ali Mahmud)
According to Channel 12 news, Mossad chief David Barnea, Israel’s top official involved the negotiations, told cabinet ministers on Wednesday that freeing all 133 captives and remains held in Gaza in a single truce agreement would be impossible, and that at best 40 people could be freed in a first phase.
Of the 253 hostages kidnapped during Hamas’s October 7 attacks, in which terrorists slaughtered some 1,200 people, 105 civilians were released from Hamas captivity during a weeklong truce in late November, and four hostages were released prior to that. Three hostages have been rescued by troops alive, and the bodies of 12 hostages have also been recovered, including three mistakenly killed by the military.
One more person is listed as missing since October 7, and their fate is still unknown. Hamas is also holding the bodies of fallen IDF soldiers Oron Shaul and Hadar Goldin since 2014, as well as two Israeli civilians, Avera Mengistu and Hisham al-Sayed, who are both thought to be alive after entering the Strip of their own accord in 2014 and 2015 respectively.
Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh said on Wednesday that his group would deal “seriously and positively with any agreement that is based on a comprehensive ending of the aggression and the complete withdrawal and prisoners swap.”
And I suppose you think IDF will stop if they get 40 hostages or 100 or all 120? That's the point. Caveat emptor and plausible reasons include : they ask for complete Israeli withdrawal are :because there are significantly less than 100 hostages, or they lost contact with Sinwar either because he is dead, or because Hamas cannot enter Gaza anywhere because now all tunnels destroyed, and Israel controls the Philadelphi corridor and has lost electronic communications. No doubt Israel is monitoring every communication in and out of Gaza either via cell or land line. And if Sinwar is able to communicate that would give IDF and NSA an opportunity to pinpoint his location.
Why do you all assume 120 hostages are alive and Hamas is in daily communication with Sinwar? What is your evidence that there are 120 alive? Or dead. What is your evidence that Israel would accept release of less than 40 hostages in 45 days or less?
All evidence points to complete destruction of Gaza beyond the 55 percent already destroyed until they find Sinwar or all the hostages dead or alive.
I wish Quatar would eject Haniyeh from Doha or take meaningful steps to verify the number of hostages that are alive.
Hypothetically if Quatar the US and Israel knew that Haniyeh had lost contact with Sinwar why would DCIA fly to Doha this week. Maybe to verify that Haniyeh can deliver any deal and if not kick his rear end out of Doha so he can be immediately neutralized.
My personal opinion is you don't negotiate with hostage takers but Presidents Carter Reagan and Obama and Biden have negotiated with Iran Hezbollah and now Hamas indirectly and Biden has not had good results negotiating the release of anyone other than a WNBA star for a war criminal Viktor Bout.
Thank you for elaborating. I don't know whether 120 hostages still alive; I just think that the minimum condition for a ceasefire to last at least 30 days is probably not the crucial factor hampering negotiations. That seems to be your view as well, so I'm glad we concur.
We do concur. When Hamas announces they don't know, can't produce many proof of life videos, what incentive is there for IDF to agree. Maybe they can't produce 40.
I think its more likely than not that Israel is stopping Gaza war in favor of localized operations. They just stopped all operations of their own accord and opened a corridor for aid for 11 hours a day along Main roads to all of Gaza.
Sounds to me Netanyahu’s goal he wants hostages freed and will continue military operations as long as it takes to ensure Hamas does not have any involvement in Gaza or later negotiations, over West Bank. Systematic attacks on PIJ and Hamas in Jeneen camp.
Once they finish operations in Gaza, I am sure they invade Lebanon and advance to Litani River. Once Israel has dealt with these Iran proxies with US fully engaged against Houthis and US and Israel's friends defending against Iranian attack on Israel, Israel moves on Tehran
I forsee Israel systematically neutralizing everg every Iranian threat on their border.
Now United States and its Arab allies are using Israel as its proxy. All these states want Israel and US to put paid to Houthis and really favor Israel taking out both Hamas and Hezbollah.
The Saudis are most influential. Their message to US is we fought Houthis for 10 years in Yemen. Your Congress criticized us. Now that KSA sees US and Israel taking on all these groups, KSA Trusts security guarantee agreement offered by Blinken.
The civilian suffering in Gaza is outrageous. But after October 7 no possibility any Israeli government would respond any other way. The IDF instituted 11 hour pause unilaterally to deliver aid to beleaguered Gazan.
No one should believe Gallant and the IDF are war criminals. Whatever they say. Netanyahu’may be. Ben Gvir and Smolich are genocidal maniacs and this settler movement must be quashed.
There is an ongoing debate about these extreme orthodox groups being drafted.. Meanwhile the IDF proceed as planned and will Institute their own governance mechanisms They will plan for ending active operations and moving against Hezbollah by Sept 15
Why do you think you're right?
Israeli politicians in favor of the "Biden deal":
Yair Lapid
Yair Golan
Benny Gantz
Against:
Itamar Ben-Gvir
Bezalel Smotrich
Netanyahu
Ambiguous:
Isaac Herzog
Wild card: What if Israel's supreme court permits drafting the Haradin ["ultra religious," who believe their thoughts and prayers are all the owe Israel], who currently are excused from the draft that applies to all other Israeli men and women? What if they get dragooned out of their enclaves? They might vote differently if their young men (or women, too) have to fight and die to keep up the Gaza war. They surely will riot.
Sample of today's (6-2-2024) Israeli news sources:
https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-804600
https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-06-02/ty-article/.premium/like-israel-hamas-isnt-offering-palestinians-a-day-after-just-more-war-and-suffering/0000018f-ceb4-d323-a98f-dffdff030000
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/390930
https://www.timesofisrael.com/senior-netanyahu-adviser-israel-okayed-biden-touted-hostage-deal-but-work-needed/
Why might you be wrong?
Too high? As long as Netanyahu remains in power, a long-lasting ceasefire seems highly unlikely. His big risk if the war ends: prison.
What if the leaders of Hamas continue the Palestinian history to "never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity"? -- Israel's former Minister of Foreign Affairs, Abba Eban, in 1973.
So this could end up as a long-lasting cessation of most hostilities without a formal agreement -- just as it often has been.
Too low? On the other hand, Hamas already agreed to and observed a ceasefire , Nov. 24 to 30, 2023.
FWIW:
I don't see a deal lasting more than 30 days because in all likelihood neither Hamas or PIJ have more than 50 hostages total. Sad to say but at 2 hostages a day that will terminate in 25 days.
I do see a deal that Haniyeh and Bibi would sign tomorrow.
At this point I don't think Israel can afford Gaza for 8 months. It is diplomatically impossible. It is politically impossible because Gantz and Gallant and IDF want to move on to Hezbollah.
I am going to assume that there will be a deal of some kind but it won't last 30 days and that political pressure to repopulate North of Israel mean that next step is Lebanon and handoff to some Palestinian entity governmental authority with Israeli withdrawal to a security perimeter around Gaza border and road IDF built East West fron US floating pier to Israel border just south of Gaza City.
Israeli Intel says that Hamas and hostages have not exited Gaza. Because Egypt claimed to be unaware of the 60 found by IDF along Philadelphi Corridor, we can't rule out that Sinwar is in or beneath Gaza. We can't even be sure Sinwar or any of the hostages are alive. It appears 2 or 3 are but the proof of life videos released prove nothing.
I said stop and declare victory months ago. Going into Rafah and blocking Hamas tunnels into Egypt was sine qua non of a successful war. Looking back I wonder why IDF did not fo first not last and before 2 million people were shunted into Rafah.
Biden has a good Secretary of Defense and Secretary of State and I hope Netanyahu got the message and starts listening. Basically Biden made an offer no one can refuse, but they have an interlocutor in tunnels for more than 8 months and I am not optimistic that Sinwar if he is alive will accept or if He does can provide 50 living hostages. Sad to say I fear most are dead some are not. Past time to get them out and stop Gaza. I pray most are alive
@Plataea479
This does not seem to be the case:
We don't know that over 100 hostages are alive. I would say it is 70 percent likely less than 50 survive. 90 percent likely less than 100.
99 percent likely your Guardian reference is incorrect
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/11/hamas-says-it-does-not-have-40-hostages-who-fit-criteria-for-deal-with-israel
The inference from this article maybe that less than 40 survive and are under Hamas control or worse there are less than 40 left alive. Best case there are less than 50 civilians left. The 40 referred to in the designated categories if you trust Hamas. I really doubt US and Israel have seen more proof of life videos. If they did Hamas would be releasing those images as part of its brutal propaganda that emphasize civilian deaths in Gaza and alive hostages in captivity.
There is much we don't know that is classified or just unknown and unknowable. Hamas has a perverse incentive to keep everyone guessing and the negotiations continued. If we knew all were dead Haniyeh would be booted out of Doha and dead instead of living in luxury and traveling to Tehran and Moscow. Why should we trust Haniyeh for any fact not independently verified.
I pray they all survive at the figure you cite. 100 percent no one knows including Sinwar and Haniyeh.
Egypt must be involved to get control of hostages and exchange at Rafah crossing dead or alive.
There is already a security vacuum in Gaza let IDF withdraw in phases and let Egypt occupy in phases and Withdraw for some international force. TBD
Fact is we don't know how many are alive. 40 in the specified category or 120 total. We just don't know https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/number-hostages-still-alive-gaza-remains-mystery-officials-say-rcna148294
https://www.politico.eu/article/israel-says-80-hostages-alive-gaza/
Quoting Israeli officials number about 80
https://www.timesofisrael.com/us-israeli-officials-fear-most-hostages-held-by-hamas-are-dead-report/
of the 129 remaining hostages abducted by Hamas on October 7, citing intelligence and findings obtained by troops operating in Gaza, the report said that “Israeli and American officials estimate privately that the number of deaths could be much higher.”
Some US estimates indicate that most of the hostages are already dead, American officials familiar with the intelligence told the paper, while stressing that US information on the hostages is limited and depends in part on Israeli intel.
US officials quoted in the report said that some of the hostages had likely been killed by Israeli strikes on Gaza amid the ongoing war, while others had died of health issues, including injuries suffered.
Officials believe hostages who are still alive are being used as human shields surrounding the group’s leadership, hidden deep in Gaza tunnels, the report said.
It came as some reports say Hamas has indicated it is unable to provide 40 living hostages in the category set for initial release under a potential hostage deal — women, children, the elderly, or those requiring medical attention.
The release of other hostages including adult men and captured soldiers is under a separate category.
According to Kan news, Israel has insisted that 40 living hostages must be freed under any first phase, and that Hamas must make up for any shortage in one category with individuals from another.
US, Israeli officials fear most hostages held by Hamas are dead — report
Palestinian terrorists drive back to the Gaza Strip with the body of Shani Louk, a German-Israeli dual citizen who was murdered at the Supernova music festival on Saturday, Oct. 7, 2023. (AP Photo/Ali Mahmud)
According to Channel 12 news, Mossad chief David Barnea, Israel’s top official involved the negotiations, told cabinet ministers on Wednesday that freeing all 133 captives and remains held in Gaza in a single truce agreement would be impossible, and that at best 40 people could be freed in a first phase.
Of the 253 hostages kidnapped during Hamas’s October 7 attacks, in which terrorists slaughtered some 1,200 people, 105 civilians were released from Hamas captivity during a weeklong truce in late November, and four hostages were released prior to that. Three hostages have been rescued by troops alive, and the bodies of 12 hostages have also been recovered, including three mistakenly killed by the military.
One more person is listed as missing since October 7, and their fate is still unknown. Hamas is also holding the bodies of fallen IDF soldiers Oron Shaul and Hadar Goldin since 2014, as well as two Israeli civilians, Avera Mengistu and Hisham al-Sayed, who are both thought to be alive after entering the Strip of their own accord in 2014 and 2015 respectively.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/us-israeli-officials-fear-most-hostages-held-by-hamas-are-dead-report/
https://www.timesofisrael.com/us-israeli-officials-fear-most-hostages-held-by-hamas-are-dead-report/
https://m.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-798103 Shin Bet denies reports only 40 are alive
Meanwhile
Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh said on Wednesday that his group would deal “seriously and positively with any agreement that is based on a comprehensive ending of the aggression and the complete withdrawal and prisoners swap.”
And I suppose you think IDF will stop if they get 40 hostages or 100 or all 120? That's the point. Caveat emptor and plausible reasons include : they ask for complete Israeli withdrawal are :because there are significantly less than 100 hostages, or they lost contact with Sinwar either because he is dead, or because Hamas cannot enter Gaza anywhere because now all tunnels destroyed, and Israel controls the Philadelphi corridor and has lost electronic communications. No doubt Israel is monitoring every communication in and out of Gaza either via cell or land line. And if Sinwar is able to communicate that would give IDF and NSA an opportunity to pinpoint his location.
Why do you all assume 120 hostages are alive and Hamas is in daily communication with Sinwar? What is your evidence that there are 120 alive? Or dead. What is your evidence that Israel would accept release of less than 40 hostages in 45 days or less?
All evidence points to complete destruction of Gaza beyond the 55 percent already destroyed until they find Sinwar or all the hostages dead or alive.
I wish Quatar would eject Haniyeh from Doha or take meaningful steps to verify the number of hostages that are alive.
Hypothetically if Quatar the US and Israel knew that Haniyeh had lost contact with Sinwar why would DCIA fly to Doha this week. Maybe to verify that Haniyeh can deliver any deal and if not kick his rear end out of Doha so he can be immediately neutralized.
My personal opinion is you don't negotiate with hostage takers but Presidents Carter Reagan and Obama and Biden have negotiated with Iran Hezbollah and now Hamas indirectly and Biden has not had good results negotiating the release of anyone other than a WNBA star for a war criminal Viktor Bout.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/no-one-has-any-idea-how-many-hostages-are-still-alive-hamas-official-says/
We do concur. When Hamas announces they don't know, can't produce many proof of life videos, what incentive is there for IDF to agree. Maybe they can't produce 40.
I think its more likely than not that Israel is stopping Gaza war in favor of localized operations. They just stopped all operations of their own accord and opened a corridor for aid for 11 hours a day along Main roads to all of Gaza.
Sounds to me Netanyahu’s goal he wants hostages freed and will continue military operations as long as it takes to ensure Hamas does not have any involvement in Gaza or later negotiations, over West Bank. Systematic attacks on PIJ and Hamas in Jeneen camp.
Once they finish operations in Gaza, I am sure they invade Lebanon and advance to Litani River. Once Israel has dealt with these Iran proxies with US fully engaged against Houthis and US and Israel's friends defending against Iranian attack on Israel, Israel moves on Tehran
I forsee Israel systematically neutralizing everg every Iranian threat on their border.
Now United States and its Arab allies are using Israel as its proxy. All these states want Israel and US to put paid to Houthis and really favor Israel taking out both Hamas and Hezbollah.
The Saudis are most influential. Their message to US is we fought Houthis for 10 years in Yemen. Your Congress criticized us. Now that KSA sees US and Israel taking on all these groups, KSA Trusts security guarantee agreement offered by Blinken.
The civilian suffering in Gaza is outrageous. But after October 7 no possibility any Israeli government would respond any other way. The IDF instituted 11 hour pause unilaterally to deliver aid to beleaguered Gazan.
No one should believe Gallant and the IDF are war criminals. Whatever they say. Netanyahu’may be. Ben Gvir and Smolich are genocidal maniacs and this settler movement must be quashed.
There is an ongoing debate about these extreme orthodox groups being drafted.. Meanwhile the IDF proceed as planned and will Institute their own governance mechanisms They will plan for ending active operations and moving against Hezbollah by Sept 15