+23 cases today, for a total of 1454. Three (3) more weekly updates; we need just an average of 16 cases/week to reach 1,500, and the average of the last weeks is comfortably above 20/week.
What's more, it seems that we know of several cases that have been reported by the states but not yet incorporated into the CDC numbers:
Utah reports 24 cases as of Sep 9, while the CDC only 15. Something similar was happening with Colorado, which reported 27 cases already as of Aug 30, but the CDC only 21 until the previous report of Sep 3 (CDC included all 27 in their latest).
The Colorado case leads me to believe that the state-reported cases will eventually be integrated into the CDC report, but delays can be significant (and thus even possibly affect our outcome here): Colorado reported 27 cases already from Aug 30, but the CDC in Sep 3 included only 21; and Utah reported 19 cases already from Sep 5 (!), but even today the CDC still reports only 15...
Apart from Utah and Colorado, I have manually checked the state webpages of Kansas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Montana - all of them agree with the numbers currently reported by the CDC. I am blocked from accessing Arizona for some reason, but according to @TBall (private communication), they also report the same number with the CDC (34). Wisconsin reports 2 more than the CDC (27 vs 25). Texas have stopped updating their state page since Aug 12.
So, it seems that Utah & Wisconsin are the only states currently over-reporting, and I guess that counting their additional 11 cases gives a realistic enough estimate of the current situation at 1465...
The CNN tracker seems to be a good enough proxy, reporting 1448 cases as of yesterday (day of last data added to the CDC report) and 1458 cases today: https://edition.cnn.com/health/measles-cases-us-dg
Why do you think you're right?
+23 cases today, for a total of 1454. Three (3) more weekly updates; we need just an average of 16 cases/week to reach 1,500, and the average of the last weeks is comfortably above 20/week.
What's more, it seems that we know of several cases that have been reported by the states but not yet incorporated into the CDC numbers:
Utah reports 24 cases as of Sep 9, while the CDC only 15. Something similar was happening with Colorado, which reported 27 cases already as of Aug 30, but the CDC only 21 until the previous report of Sep 3 (CDC included all 27 in their latest).
The Colorado case leads me to believe that the state-reported cases will eventually be integrated into the CDC report, but delays can be significant (and thus even possibly affect our outcome here): Colorado reported 27 cases already from Aug 30, but the CDC in Sep 3 included only 21; and Utah reported 19 cases already from Sep 5 (!), but even today the CDC still reports only 15...
Apart from Utah and Colorado, I have manually checked the state webpages of Kansas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Montana - all of them agree with the numbers currently reported by the CDC. I am blocked from accessing Arizona for some reason, but according to @TBall (private communication), they also report the same number with the CDC (34). Wisconsin reports 2 more than the CDC (27 vs 25). Texas have stopped updating their state page since Aug 12.
So, it seems that Utah & Wisconsin are the only states currently over-reporting, and I guess that counting their additional 11 cases gives a realistic enough estimate of the current situation at 1465...
The CNN tracker seems to be a good enough proxy, reporting 1448 cases as of yesterday (day of last data added to the CDC report) and 1458 cases today: https://edition.cnn.com/health/measles-cases-us-dg
Why might you be wrong?
As before