RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Oct 01, 2025 04:00PM UTC	How many German-language disinformation cases originating in pro-Kremlin media will there be between 1 October 2024 and 30 September 2025?	-0.029026
Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC	Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 22, 2024 and Jan 1, 2025)	0.0
Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC	In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 15, 2024 and Jan 1, 2025)	-0.224582
Jul 24, 2025 04:00PM UTC	Will the share of battery-electric vehicles among new registered cars in the EU exceed 20% by the second quarter of 2025?	-0.005492
Jul 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC	Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 6, 2024 and Jan 1, 2025)	-0.045154
Jul 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?	0.000973
May 31, 2025 05:00PM UTC	On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?	0.030789
May 28, 2025 08:00PM UTC	Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 28, 2025 and May 28, 2025)	0.00158
Apr 28, 2025 08:00PM UTC	Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 28, 2025 and Apr 28, 2025)	0.001358
Apr 28, 2025 01:00PM UTC	Will a North American testing center (OTIC) issue an O-RAN Certificate between 1 April 2024 and 31 March 2025?	0.043211
Apr 04, 2025 05:00PM UTC	Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 4, 2025 and Apr 4, 2025)	0.005535
Apr 04, 2025 05:00PM UTC	Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 4, 2025 and Apr 4, 2025)	0.006181
Mar 28, 2025 08:00PM UTC	Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 28, 2025 and Mar 28, 2025)	0.000593
Mar 04, 2025 05:00PM UTC	Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 4, 2025 and Mar 4, 2025)	0.008657
Mar 04, 2025 05:00PM UTC	Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 4, 2025 and Mar 4, 2025)	0.021854
Feb 28, 2025 08:00PM UTC	Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 28, 2025 and Feb 28, 2025)	0.000445
Feb 14, 2025 06:00PM UTC	What percentage of global semiconductor revenue will come from the Americas region in 2024?	-0.005506
Feb 04, 2025 05:00PM UTC	Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 4, 2025 and Feb 4, 2025)	0.016161
Feb 04, 2025 05:00PM UTC	Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 4, 2025 and Feb 4, 2025)	0.033023
Jan 31, 2025 05:00AM UTC	Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?	-0.053354

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