RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 27, 2025 08:15AM UTC
(10 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Moldova	4%	6%	-2%	+0%
Armenia	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
Georgia	2%	3%	-1%	+0%
Kazakhstan	1%	1%	+0%	0%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
23 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 27, 2025 08:38AM UTC
(10 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Estonia	2%	3%	-1%	+0%
Latvia	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
Lithuania	2%	3%	-1%	+0%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
17 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 27, 2025 09:19AM UTC
(10 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Nov 27, 2025 to May 27, 2026	Dec 27, 2025	1%	+0%	-1%
No	99%	Nov 27, 2025 to May 27, 2026	Dec 27, 2025	99%	+0%	+1%

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

Forecast Count:
16 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 27, 2025 09:31AM UTC
(10 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	Nov 27, 2025 to May 27, 2026	Dec 27, 2025	2%	+0%	+1%
No	98%	Nov 27, 2025 to May 27, 2026	Dec 27, 2025	98%	+0%	-1%

Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
15 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 27, 2025 09:42AM UTC
(10 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	4%	Nov 27, 2025 to May 27, 2026	Dec 27, 2025	1%	+3%	+0%
No	96%	Nov 27, 2025 to May 27, 2026	Dec 27, 2025	99%	-3%	+0%

In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?

Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 27, 2025 09:57AM UTC
(10 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	Nov 27, 2025 to May 27, 2027	Feb 27, 2026	6%	-1%	+0%
No	95%	Nov 27, 2025 to May 27, 2027	Feb 27, 2026	94%	+1%	+0%

Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 27, 2025 10:00AM UTC
(10 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	4%	7%	-3%	+0%
No	96%	93%	+3%	+0%

Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 27, 2025 10:08AM UTC
(10 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
No	99%	98%	+1%	+0%

Will the U.S. federal government enact legislation that substantively regulates or authorizes regulation of artificial intelligence systems or their development before 1 January 2026?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 27, 2025 10:14AM UTC
(10 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
No	100%	99%	+1%	+0%

What will the average employment rate in OECD countries be in 2025?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 27, 2025 10:20AM UTC
(10 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 62%	0%	0%	+0%	0%
More than or equal to 62% but less than 66%	0%	0%	+0%	0%
More than or equal to 66% but less than 70%	2%	4%	-2%	-1%
More than or equal to 70% but less than 74%	98%	96%	+2%	+1%
More than or equal to 74%	0%	0%	+0%	0%

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Nicolò

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