BlancaElenaGG

There is a strong likelihood that by the end of 2030, at least one major government agency in the United States, European Union, or United Kingdom will formally subject mirror biology research to dual-use oversight mechanisms. This forecast is supported by a growing international consensus, which reflect heightened awareness of the risks associated with mirror biology.

Several factors contribute to this high probability. First, there is ongoing policy momentum. In May 2024, the United States updated its federal policy on dual-use research of concern (DURC) to better address high-risk developments in the life sciences, which could easily extend to novel areas like mirror biology. Similarly, both the EU and the UK have been expanding their export-control and biosafety regulations, especially in response to emerging biotechnologies that may pose national security concerns.

Scientific concern is also rising. Leading journals such as Nature and Science, along with policy reports, have begun to highlight the potential dangers of synthetic mirror organisms—particularly their ability to evade natural immune responses or disrupt ecosystems. These risks are prompting calls for stricter oversight and precautionary governance, which regulatory bodies are increasingly inclined to heed.

It is likely that by 31 December 2030, major international non-governmental research funders will implement specific policies restricting or requiring oversight of mirror biology research. This projection is based on growing global awareness of the dual-use risks and ethical concerns associated with synthetic and mirror biology. As the field progresses, funders will likely align with precautionary norms seen in other sensitive research areas such as gain-of-function studies. 

Vladimir Putin’s continued hold on power is anchored in a deeply entrenched political system, a tightly controlled media environment, and constitutional changes that have effectively eliminated immediate term limits. Following the constitutional amendments passed in 2020, Putin is legally allowed to remain president until 2036. These changes were  also ratified through a national vote, albeit under questionable democratic standards.

There is currently no significant political opposition capable of posing a credible challenge to his authority. Major opposition figures have been systematically neutralized through imprisonment, exile, or legal bans, and the political environment in Russia is increasingly repressive. The Russian state has also shown a high level of resilience against international sanctions and internal dissent, especially following the invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

The likelihood of North Korea conducting a nuclear test within the next six months is influenced by a range of geopolitical factors. North Korea has a history of conducting nuclear tests in response to external pressures and as a demonstration of its military capabilities. Despite international sanctions and diplomatic efforts aimed at curbing its nuclear ambitions, the regime has consistently shown a willingness to pursue its nuclear program as a central component of its national security strategy.

Recent developments, such as North Korea's continued missile tests and the ongoing tensions with neighboring countries and the United States, suggest that the regime may view nuclear tests as a means of asserting its strength and further advancing its weapons program. Additionally, the domestic political landscape in North Korea often plays a crucial role in decision-making. The regime may resort to nuclear testing to consolidate power or to bolster its position in the face of external challenges.

While there is significant pressure from the international community to prevent further nuclear tests, North Korea's historical behavior and its opaque decision-making process make it difficult to predict with certainty whether such an event will occur. The regime’s unpredictability and its strategic interests in maintaining a credible deterrent keep the possibility of a nuclear test within the realm of possibility in the near future.