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174th
Accuracy Rank

BlancaElenaGG

5.150342

Relative Brier Score

58

Forecasts

5

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 9 9 84 58 435
Comments 0 0 6 6 30
Questions Forecasted 9 9 58 39 156
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 6 5 26
 Definitions
New Prediction

"Putin's historic electoral victory this year has to do with two main factors: the push for national unity as a result of the war in Ukraine and the lack of an alternative program that could challenge the mandate of the four-time re-elected president. 

More than 20 years forging an effective judicial system to protect the interests of Putin's Kremlin were reflected in the political disqualification of two candidates who based their proposal on criticism of the current Administration."

https://www.france24.com/es/europa/20240318-la-rusia-de-vladimir-putin-se-extiende-hasta-el-2030-pese-a-la-inconformidad-de-occidente

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New Prediction
BlancaElenaGG
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1% (0%)
Yes
Oct 1, 2024 to Apr 1, 2025
99% (0%)
No
Oct 1, 2024 to Apr 1, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
BlancaElenaGG
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Moldova
1% (0%)
Armenia
3% (0%)
Georgia
2% (0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
BlancaElenaGG
made their 3rd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
4% (0%)
S-400 or S-500 missile system
6% (0%)
Su-35 fighter jets
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
BlancaElenaGG
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
8% (0%)
Yes
Oct 1, 2024 to Oct 1, 2025
92% (0%)
No
Oct 1, 2024 to Oct 1, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
BlancaElenaGG
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
1% (0%)
Yes
99% (0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Badge
BlancaElenaGG
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
BlancaElenaGG
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
99% (+1%)
Yes
1% (-1%)
No

According to the three possible scenarios in Venezuela that the BBC presents, I think that the first one will be the one that remains and that is why I decide to lower my forecast one point:

https://www.bbc.com/mundo/articles/c4gzkd3d1yno

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