BlancaElenaGG

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 Definitions


New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Delcy Rodríguez could still be President of Venezuela on 30 April 2026 if the current political arrangement remains in place. As vice president and a central figure within the governing coalition, she represents institutional continuity for the regime. Under a contested interpretation of the Venezuelan constitution, the executive branch and aligned institutions could justify her staying in office without immediate elections, framing the situation as a temporary or managed transition. In a context where regime stability, elite cohesion, and control over the security apparatus remain priorities, extending her tenure would be a low-risk option for the ruling bloc.


However, it is far from certain that Delcy Rodríguez will be President by that date. Her legitimacy is disputed both domestically and internationally, and sustained pressure for elections or a negotiated transition could force a change before April 2026. Constitutional arguments requiring new elections in cases of presidential vacancy remain politically powerful, particularly if opposition mobilization increases or if internal fractures emerge within the ruling coalition. International recognition would also remain limited, constraining her ability to govern effectively in the medium term.


Importantly, there is no solid evidence to infer a political agreement with Donald Trump, or with the United States more broadly, designed to keep Delcy Rodríguez in power. U.S. policy toward Venezuela has historically prioritized electoral processes, negotiated transitions, and sanctions leverage rather than endorsing continuity figures from the Maduro inner circle. While pragmatic contacts or tactical toleration cannot be ruled out in diplomacy, inferring a deal specifically aimed at sustaining her presidency would be speculative and unsupported by publicly available information.


In short, Delcy Rodríguez might remain in office on 30 April 2026 under a controlled continuity scenario, but her position would likely remain provisional, contested, and politically fragile rather than consolidated or internationally legitimized.

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Why might you be wrong?

I could be wrong because Venezuelan politics is highly opaque, volatile, and driven by elite negotiations that are not publicly visible. Key decisions are often made behind closed doors among military leaders, party insiders, and international interlocutors, and can change rapidly in response to unexpected events such as internal fractures, social unrest, legal reinterpretations, or shifts in international pressure. Additionally, constitutional rules in Venezuela are frequently reinterpreted ex post to fit political needs, which limits the predictive power of formal legal analysis. Finally, diplomatic dynamics, sanctions, negotiations, or recognition policies, can evolve abruptly and alter incentives for continuity or transition, making any forecast contingent rather than definitive.

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ctsats
made a comment:

Kindly allow me a technical remark: the claim that "it is far from certain that Delcy Rodríguez will be President by that date" does not seem consistent with a near-certainty forecast of 97%.

Just sayin'...

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BlancaElenaGG
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

A cautious but reasoned assessment would be yes, it is plausible, though far from certain, that the United Nations could deploy peacekeeping forces to a conflict zone in a new country or territory by 31 July 2026.

One of the most frequently cited possibilities is Gaza or a broader Palestinian territory, particularly in the context of a post-ceasefire arrangement following the Israel–Hamas war. Several diplomatic discussions have already floated the idea of an international presencié potentially under a UN mandate to support civilian protection, facilitate humanitarian access, and help stabilize governance during a transitional phase. A UN mission could be framed as a temporary stabilization or observer force rather than a traditional robust peacekeeping operation.

Another plausible scenario is Haiti, where the security crisis continues to deteriorate. While the current international response has relied on a non-UN multinational security support mission, a transition to a formal UN peacekeeping operation remains a realistic option if violence escalates further and existing arrangements fail to restore basic security. This would technically count as a “new” UN deployment if it involves a different mandate, force structure, and operational framework. 






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Why might you be wrong?

However, there are strong reasons why this prediction could turn out to be wrong. First, political consensus in the UN Security Council is increasingly difficult, particularly due to geopolitical polarization among permanent members. Any new peacekeeping mission requires a mandate that could be blocked by vetoes or prolonged negotiations. Second, there is growing skepticism toward large-scale peacekeeping driven by concerns over cost, effectiveness, and mixed records in recent missions. Third, some states and regional organizations are actively preferring ad hoc coalitions or regional-led interventions over UN blue-helmet operations, reducing the likelihood of a formal UN deployment.

In short, while the conditions for a new UN peacekeeping mission—especially in Gaza or Haiti—clearly exist, political fragmentation, operational fatigue, and alternative security arrangements make such a deployment uncertain. The likelihood is real, but the margin for error remains high.


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New Prediction
New Prediction
BlancaElenaGG
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
23% (0%)
Yes
Jan 1, 2026 to Jul 1, 2026
77% (0%)
No
Jan 1, 2026 to Jul 1, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
BlancaElenaGG
made their 4th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Moldova
1% (0%)
Armenia
3% (0%)
Georgia
2% (0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
BlancaElenaGG
made their 4th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0% (0%)
Yes
Jan 1, 2026 to Jul 1, 2026
100% (0%)
No
Jan 1, 2026 to Jul 1, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
BlancaElenaGG
made their 3rd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
1% (0%)
Estonia
1% (0%)
Latvia
2% (0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
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