CrosbyG

Drug seizure patterns have not held a consistent pattern month to month over the last several years. https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/drug-seizure-statistics, but July 2024 saw seizures well under 50k pounds.  Likewise, May 2025 was down approximately 15% from April 2025. USBP and OFO encounters of undocumented migrants have decreased dramatically in FY 25, dropping 81% from May 24 to May 25.  https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/nationwide-encounters. Narcotics traffickers routinely use migrants either to move drugs across the US border or use groups of migrants to distract USBP agents. US military presence has increased to assist USBP. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/takeaways-us-military-expands-enforcement-zone-to-13-of-southern-border/ar-AA1HWDBt?ocid=BingNewsSerp. Canada has agreed to increase law enforcement across the northern US border. https://apnews.com/article/canada-united-states-fentanyl-czar-1cc5c1832581d3693c4663c0c6145e04

Measles cases by week appears to have peaked in the March/April time frame at around 100 per week.  In the last four weeks, this has dropped to about 15 cases.  In the last two weeks, this has continued to drop to about 5 per week. If this pattern continues, we should see about 1400 total cases by October 1st.  The biggest outbreaks were in Texas and it appears more parents are vaccinating their children at an earlier age. https://www.texastribune.org/2025/05/22/texas-measles-babies-vaccine/

Considering this question only considers Gallup, it is very unlikely that Donald Trump's approval rating will be above 45% on 1 August.  As of 6/19, his rating was 40%.  https://news.gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ratings-donald-trump.aspx

July is traditionally a slow political month, so it's unlikely that polls will move a great deal either way.  Additionally, more scandals, of semi-scandals, may hurt him slightly. For example, the recent reporting that Donald Trump did not give permission to halt recent arms shipments to Ukraine. 

As explained in this questions clarification, Spain has stated that it is exempt from the 5% target.  A 2022 poll found a majority opposed to increasing military spending and only 31% believing that Russia was a military threat to Spain.

https://cepa.org/article/spain-natos-laggard/

Spain has not been a significant military power in Europe for well over 100 years and only joined the NATO military structure in 1999. According to the World Bank, Spain has not spent beyond 3% since 1960, or 1.6% since 2000. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS?locations=ES

It is likely that the US will take the commitments of all the other NATO countries to reach the 5% goal as a victory and not spend significant effort to coax Spain to that level. 

BEV market share in the EU has inclemently increased in recent years and has increased from 15.2% for the 1st quarter of 2025 to 15.4% for May of 2025. https://www.acea.auto/pc-registrations/new-car-registrations-1-2-in-april-2025-year-to-date-battery-electric-15-3-market-share/

These are small increases from 2024 and do not indicate a jump to 20% by the end of the 2nd quarter. It appears that current BEV market is very similar to its historic highs highs.https://theicct.org/publication/european-market-monitor-cars-vans-may-2025-jun25/#:~:text=Passenger%20car%20registrations,MHEVs)%20at%2038%25%20each. https://theicct.org/publication/european-market-monitor-cars-vans-may-2025-jun25/#:~:text=Passenger%20car%20registrations,MHEVs)%20at%2038%25%20each.