Confirmed previous forecast
-0.001422
Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 114 | 114 | 114 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 102 | 102 | 102 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 30 | 30 | 30 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 32 | 32 | 32 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
What will be Germany’s net perception of Ukraine in the 2026 Munich Security Report?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 9%
6%
(0%)
Between 10% and 19%, inclusive
75%
(0%)
Between 20% and 29%, inclusive
16%
(0%)
Between 30% and 39%, inclusive
3%
(0%)
More than or equal to 40%
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Less than 30 days
10%
(0%)
30 days
20%
(0%)
31-60 days
43%
(0%)
61-90 days
23%
(0%)
91 days or more
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Badge
Power Forecaster - Aug 2025
Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Badge
Star Commenter - Aug 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Sep 28, 2025 03:23PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(-2%)
Yes
Aug 28, 2025 to Feb 28, 2026
99%
(+2%)
No
Aug 28, 2025 to Feb 28, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Accounting for time.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I could be missing some indicators.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
92%
(+6%)
Less than or equal to 1
8%
(-6%)
Between 2 and 3, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 4 and 5, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 6
Why do you think you're right?
Accounting for time
Files
Why might you be wrong?
There's still a month left and it is possible that multiple hurricanes form.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-5%)
Less than or equal to 1349
23%
(-48%)
Between 1350 and 1499, inclusive
49%
(+28%)
Between 1500 and 1649, inclusive
25%
(+23%)
Between 1650 and 1799, inclusive
3%
(+2%)
More than or equal to 1800
Why do you think you're right?
The tail is longer than I thought - updating accordingly
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I may be overestimating the growth rate here.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files