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DimaKlenchin

Dima Klenchin
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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Jan 15, 2024 10:00PM UTC In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 15, 2023 and Jan 15, 2024) -0.044594
Jan 06, 2024 04:00PM UTC Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 6, 2023 and Jan 6, 2024) -0.001171
Jan 01, 2024 05:00PM UTC Will United Airlines announce that they are using sustainable aviation fuel produced by Cemvita Factory by 31 Dec 2023? -0.001223
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president by 31 December 2023? -0.012159
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC By 31 December 2023, will IBM Quantum Computing offer access to a quantum computing system with 1,000 or more qubits? -0.000094
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC Will OpenAI release a fifth generation of its generative pre-trained transformer model (GPT-5) to the general public in 2023? -0.000077
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC Will YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, or Twitter enable digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) on photos or videos in 2023? -0.008901
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC Will Israel and Sudan sign an agreement normalizing diplomatic relations by 31 December 2023? -0.000143
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC Will Myanmar hold national elections on or before 31 December 2023? -0.000013
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel by 31 December 2023? -0.00192
Dec 30, 2023 02:16PM UTC What percentage of Ukrainian territory will be held by Russia in December 2023? -0.000123
Dec 22, 2023 08:00PM UTC Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 22, 2023 and Dec 22, 2023) -0.000004
Dec 15, 2023 10:00PM UTC In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 15, 2023 and Dec 15, 2023) -0.033297
Dec 06, 2023 04:00PM UTC Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 6, 2023 and Dec 6, 2023) -0.00144
Nov 22, 2023 01:45PM UTC Will Israel and Hamas agree to a ceasefire in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 12, 2023 and Nov 22, 2023) -0.130571
Nov 18, 2023 05:00PM UTC Will Google’s Quantum AI lab publish 20 or more publications in 2023? 0.022437
Nov 01, 2023 04:01AM UTC Will a country ban or take regulatory actions that ultimately block access to OpenAI's models, between 1 June 2023 and 31 October 2023, inclusive? -0.006797
Oct 11, 2023 04:00PM UTC Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or missile-related facility in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 11, 2023 and Oct 11, 2023) 0.023377
Sep 18, 2023 04:01AM UTC Of the following companies, which will start volume production on a 3nm chip or smaller before 17 September 2023? -0.000118
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