15th
Accuracy Rank

EQ

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Jan 02, 2025 04:00PM UTC Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 2, 2024 and Jan 2, 2025) 0.0
Jan 01, 2025 07:00PM UTC Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 1, 2024 and Jan 1, 2025) -0.186874
Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024? 0.000916
Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated? -0.005855
Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024? -0.000252
Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA? 0.018795
Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")? -0.000571
Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024? -0.00009
Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months? -0.000025
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA? -0.003794
Dec 28, 2024 08:00PM UTC Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 28, 2024 and Dec 28, 2024) -0.000053
Dec 15, 2024 10:00PM UTC In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 15, 2024 and Dec 15, 2024) -0.004617
Dec 10, 2024 10:46PM UTC Will the Syrian Democratic Forces collapse, fragment, or lose control over key territories, specifically Manbij, Raqqa, or Deir ez-Zor, before 1 October 2026? -0.069847
Dec 04, 2024 05:00PM UTC Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 4, 2024 and Dec 4, 2024) -0.018773
Dec 04, 2024 05:00PM UTC Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 4, 2024 and Dec 4, 2024) 0.01127
Dec 02, 2024 04:00PM UTC Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 2, 2024 and Dec 2, 2024) 0.0
Dec 01, 2024 07:00PM UTC Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 1, 2024 and Dec 1, 2024) -0.06306
Dec 01, 2024 05:01AM UTC Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days? 0.122093
Nov 30, 2024 04:59AM UTC Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025? 0.075287
Nov 28, 2024 08:00PM UTC Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 28, 2024 and Nov 28, 2024) -0.0002
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