.
-0.241243
Relative Brier Score
50
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 2 | 2 | 52 | 50 | 283 |
| Comments | 2 | 2 | 30 | 28 | 35 |
| Questions Forecasted | 2 | 2 | 30 | 29 | 77 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
Top Forecaster - Nov 2025
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-30%)
Yes
100%
(+30%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
.
Files
New Badge
Top Forecaster - Oct 2025
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
Yes
85%
No
Why do you think you're right?
.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Less than $21.0 billion
0%
More than or equal to $21.0 billion but less than $22.5 billion
50%
More than or equal to $22.5 billion but less than $23.5 billion
50%
More than or equal to $23.5 billion but less than $25.0 billion
0%
More than or equal to $25.0 billion
Why do you think you're right?
.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
.
Files
New Badge
Star Commenter - Sep 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 59
0%
(-8%)
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
0%
(-71%)
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
100%
(+79%)
Between 80 and 89, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 90
Why do you think you're right?
.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
.
Files
Status quo is 71, and only one day left to go....
Files
Why do you think you're right?
.
Why might you be wrong?
.