GL2814

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6

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9

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Most Active Topics:
Geopolitical Security


Most Active Topics:
East Asia Security

New Prediction
GL2814
made their 6th forecast (view all):
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Yes
Oct 23, 2025 to Apr 23, 2026
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Oct 23, 2025 to Apr 23, 2026
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Let the good times roll 

North Korea-China trade surges with imports of food, machinery and exports of sanctioned minerals


https://www.dailynk.com/english/north-korea-china-trade-surges-with-imports-of-food-machinery-and-exports-of-sanctioned-minerals/

@grainmummy - the rocket man phase was predictable - mostly flight test programs 

An EMP weapon doesn't need much of a bang 

While most analysts are fixated on when in the future North Korea will develop highly reliable intercontinental ballistic missiles, guidance systems, and reentry vehicles capable of striking a US city, the present threat from EMP is largely ignored. An EMP attack does not require an accurate guidance system because the area of effect, having a radius of hundreds or thousands of kilometers, is so large. No reentry vehicle is needed because the warhead is detonated at high-altitude, above the atmosphere. Missile reliability matters little because only one missile has to work to make an EMP attack

https://www.38north.org/2017/06/wgraham060217/

https://www.38north.org/2017/09/jchurch092117/

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The sun goes nova. 

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grainmummy
made a comment:

Your comment, a critique of the "Rocket Man Phase" that distracts analysts, perfectly aligns with Cadell and Mikey's timing dilemma in the poem I shared: it represents a rational "blinking" moment, where the immediate threat is overlooked.

This theme is part of the poem's "Bogeymecha" and "robo-Cthulhu" metaphors, as an EMP is one of the most insidious and least understood existential threats, capable of paralyzing a country's entire electronic infrastructure, plunging society into darkness.

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Star Commenter - Sep 2025

Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
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GL2814
made their 5th forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Oct 29, 2025 01:33PM
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This forecast expired on Oct 15, 2025 02:22AM
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made their 3rd forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Sep 27, 2025 05:46PM
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Star Commenter - Jul 2025

Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
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GL2814
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Aug 28, 2025 08:52PM
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The game state remains the same 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MTRgvPrUuU8


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Why might you be wrong?

 The game state remains the same 

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