Historically, inflation shifts slowly. In 2025, monthly inflation rates have shifted somewhere between 0.1% and 0.2%. Given that its already June, in such a short period it seems unlikely that inflation would move dramatically from where it currently is.
-0.094902
Relative Brier Score
3
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
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Probability
Answer
0%
Less than 2.3%
19%
More than or equal to 2.3% but less than 2.6%
60%
More than or equal to 2.6% but less than 2.9%
21%
More than or equal to 2.9% but less than 3.2%
0%
More than or equal to 3.2%
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Uncertainty regarding tariffs.
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Probability
Answer
4%
Yes
96%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Recent (late 2024) concerted effort to reestablish relationship between the two countries.
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Why might you be wrong?
Economic impact of US tariffs (and US relationship with India, in particular) could change the economic relationship between the two countries (i.e., India and China).
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Why do you think you're right?
Current media reports suggest that there is much disagreement among Senate Republicans on the budget the House passed. With only a month left, it's not clear to me that they can get figure this out...especially with such a slim majority. Further, the House will need to pass any revisions the Senate makes...again, all in four weeks.
Why might you be wrong?
Despite popular media reports that the House was "never" going to pass the budget, they did (by the slimmest of margins).