Forecasted Questions
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 15, 2026 03:12PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Jan 15, 2026 03:12PM UTC
(18 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 5% | 3% | +2% | +0% |
| Latvia | 5% | 2% | +3% | +0% |
| Lithuania | 5% | 2% | +3% | +0% |
Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 15, 2026 03:15PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Jan 15, 2026 03:15PM UTC
(18 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 70% | 16% | +54% | +0% |
| No | 30% | 84% | -54% | +0% |
Will any national government publicly declare that Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) has been achieved within that country by 31 July 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 15, 2026 03:25PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Jan 15, 2026 03:25PM UTC
(18 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | 1% | +4% | +0% |
| No | 95% | 99% | -4% | +0% |
Will the United States government implement new or expanded export controls or restrictions explicitly targeting frontier AI model development by 31 July 2026?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 18, 2026 09:01PM UTC
(14 days ago)
Jan 18, 2026 09:01PM UTC
(14 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 50% | 15% | +35% | -1% |
| No | 50% | 85% | -35% | +1% |
Will China, Russia, the U.S., or the EU publicly announce new economic or trade sanctions that specifically target a state-owned oil or gas entity in Egypt, Jordan, or the United Arab Emirates (UAE) by 30 June 2026?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 18, 2026 09:02PM UTC
(14 days ago)
Jan 18, 2026 09:02PM UTC
(14 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | 2% | +3% | +0% |
| No | 95% | 98% | -3% | +0% |