Forecasted Questions
If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(14 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(14 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 11, 2025 06:46PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Dec 11, 2025 06:46PM UTC
(7 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 30 days | 89% | 68% | +21% | +0% |
| 30 days | 2% | 6% | -4% | +0% |
| 31-60 days | 1% | 5% | -4% | +0% |
| 61-90 days | 2% | 5% | -3% | +0% |
| 91 days or more | 6% | 16% | -10% | +0% |
When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(14 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(14 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 11, 2025 06:46PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Dec 11, 2025 06:46PM UTC
(7 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025 | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |
| 1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025 | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |
| 1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025 | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |
| 1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025 | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
| Not before 2026 | 99% | 98% | +1% | +0% |
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts
13 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 11, 2025 06:46PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Dec 11, 2025 06:46PM UTC
(7 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moldova | 4% | 6% | -2% | +0% |
| Armenia | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
| Georgia | 2% | 3% | -1% | +0% |
| Kazakhstan | 1% | 1% | +0% | 0% |
Will the United States government implement new or expanded export controls or restrictions explicitly targeting frontier AI model development by 31 July 2026?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 11, 2025 06:47PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Dec 11, 2025 06:47PM UTC
(7 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 9% | 14% | -5% | +0% |
| No | 91% | 86% | +5% | +0% |
Will the EU import at least 15 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in any quarter of 2025?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(14 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(14 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 15, 2025 03:03PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Dec 15, 2025 03:03PM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 1% | +0% | 0% |
| No | 99% | 99% | +0% | 0% |
Will any country announce a new national carbon tax or emissions trading system by 31 July 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 15, 2025 03:10PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Dec 15, 2025 03:10PM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 90% | 63% | +27% | +2% |
| No | 10% | 37% | -27% | -2% |