RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(17 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 29, 2025 11:46PM UTC
(15 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	3%	Nov 29, 2025 to May 29, 2026	Dec 29, 2025	0%	+3%	-2%
No	97%	Nov 29, 2025 to May 29, 2026	Dec 29, 2025	100%	-3%	+2%

How many people will earn research doctorates in microbiology and immunology fields in the U.S. between the 2026 and 2030 academic years?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 29, 2025 11:46PM UTC
(15 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 4,499	0%	5%	-5%	-4%
Between 4,500 and 4,999, inclusive	15%	12%	+3%	+0%
Between 5,000 and 5,499, inclusive	72%	76%	-4%	+2%
Between 5,500 and 5,999, inclusive	13%	6%	+7%	+1%
More than or equal to 6,000	0%	1%	-1%	+0%

Will the European “Coalition of the Willing” deploy forces to Ukraine in 2025?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(17 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 29, 2025 11:46PM UTC
(15 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	99%	+0%	+0%

Will the U.S. federal government enact legislation that substantively regulates or authorizes regulation of artificial intelligence systems or their development before 1 January 2026?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(17 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 29, 2025 11:46PM UTC
(15 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
No	100%	99%	+1%	+0%

In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?

Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(17 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 29, 2025 11:46PM UTC
(15 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	7%	Nov 29, 2025 to May 29, 2027	Feb 28, 2026	5%	+2%	-1%
No	93%	Nov 29, 2025 to May 29, 2027	Feb 28, 2026	95%	-2%	+1%

Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
15 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 29, 2025 11:46PM UTC
(15 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	20%	18%	+2%	-1%
No	80%	82%	-2%	+1%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 29, 2025 11:46PM UTC
(15 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Estonia	1%	3%	-2%	0%
Latvia	1%	2%	-1%	0%
Lithuania	1%	3%	-2%	+0%

Will at least one European country or the European Union (EU) collectively commit to providing Ukraine with HIMARS-compatible rocket artillery systems or functional substitutes by 31 December 2025?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(17 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 12:02AM UTC
(15 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	6%	17%	-11%	-10%
No	94%	83%	+11%	+10%

Will the United States implement new or expanded export controls on advanced AI chips, cloud access to AI computing, and/or AI model weights in 2025?

Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(17 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 10, 2025 04:51PM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	9%	-9%	-1%
No	100%	91%	+9%	+1%

Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?

Forecast Count:
20 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(17 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 10, 2025 04:56PM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Togo	0%	4%	-4%	+0%
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations		Answer was correct

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