RAND Forecasting Initiative

In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(14 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 08:05PM UTC
(18 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	4%	Nov 30, 2025 to May 30, 2027	Feb 28, 2026	6%	-2%	+0%
No	96%	Nov 30, 2025 to May 30, 2027	Feb 28, 2026	94%	+2%	+0%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
18 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(14 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 08:06PM UTC
(18 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Nov 30, 2025 to May 30, 2026	Dec 30, 2025	1%	-1%	+0%
No	100%	Nov 30, 2025 to May 30, 2026	Dec 30, 2025	99%	+1%	+0%

If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?

Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(14 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 08:06PM UTC
(18 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 30 days	69%	68%	+1%	+0%
30 days	1%	6%	-5%	+0%
31-60 days	14%	5%	+9%	+0%
61-90 days	4%	5%	-1%	+0%
91 days or more	12%	16%	-4%	+1%

When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?

Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(14 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 08:09PM UTC
(18 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025	0%	0%	+0%	0%
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
Not before 2026	100%	98%	+2%	+0%

Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(14 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 08:10PM UTC
(18 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Nov 30, 2025 to May 30, 2026	Dec 30, 2025	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	Nov 30, 2025 to May 30, 2026	Dec 30, 2025	99%	+0%	+0%

Will a U.S. or U.S.-ally satellite be permanently disabled by another country or organization before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 08:10PM UTC
(18 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	10%	7%	+3%	+0%
No	90%	93%	-3%	+0%

Will the EU import at least 15 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in any quarter of 2025?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(14 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 08:10PM UTC
(18 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
No	100%	99%	+1%	+0%

Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 08:10PM UTC
(18 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	8%	17%	-9%	+0%
No	92%	83%	+9%	+0%

How much more military aid will European countries allocate to Ukraine compared to the U.S. between 24 January 2022 and 31 December 2025?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(14 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 08:15PM UTC
(18 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Europe allocates the same amount or less than the U.S.	0%	1%	-1%	+1%
More than €0 but less than €10 billion	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
At least €10 billion but less than €20 billion	0%	5%	-5%	+0%
At least €20 billion but less than €30 billion	65%	50%	+15%	+0%
€30 billion or more	35%	41%	-6%	-2%

Will at least one European country or the European Union (EU) collectively commit to providing Ukraine with HIMARS-compatible rocket artillery systems or functional substitutes by 31 December 2025?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(14 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 08:16PM UTC
(18 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	30%	15%	+15%	-11%
No	70%	85%	-15%	+11%

Hobbes

About: