Forecasted Questions
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 07, 2026 08:09PM UTC
(25 days ago)
Jan 07, 2026 08:09PM UTC
(25 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moldova | 100% | 5% | +95% | +0% |
| Armenia | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| Georgia | 0% | 3% | -3% | +0% |
| Kazakhstan | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 07, 2026 08:09PM UTC
(25 days ago)
Jan 07, 2026 08:09PM UTC
(25 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 100% | 16% | +84% | -1% |
| No | 0% | 84% | -84% | +1% |
Will a U.S. or U.S.-ally satellite be permanently disabled by another country or organization before 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 07, 2026 08:09PM UTC
(25 days ago)
Jan 07, 2026 08:09PM UTC
(25 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 7% | -7% | +0% |
| No | 100% | 93% | +7% | +0% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 07, 2026 08:09PM UTC
(25 days ago)
Jan 07, 2026 08:09PM UTC
(25 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 0% | 3% | -3% | +0% |
| Latvia | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| Lithuania | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
Will China, Russia, the U.S., or the EU publicly announce new economic or trade sanctions that specifically target a state-owned oil or gas entity in Egypt, Jordan, or the United Arab Emirates (UAE) by 30 June 2026?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 07, 2026 08:09PM UTC
(25 days ago)
Jan 07, 2026 08:09PM UTC
(25 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 2% | -2% | -1% |
| No | 100% | 98% | +2% | +1% |
Will at least two European NATO members sign new, publicly announced major defense procurement contracts (over €1 billion each) with non-European suppliers by 31 July 2026?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 07, 2026 08:09PM UTC
(25 days ago)
Jan 07, 2026 08:09PM UTC
(25 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 100% | 89% | +11% | +5% |
| No | 0% | 11% | -11% | -5% |
Will the United Nations deploy peacekeeping forces to a conflict zone in a new country or territory by 31 July 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 07, 2026 08:36PM UTC
(25 days ago)
Jan 07, 2026 08:36PM UTC
(25 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 1% | -1% | -1% |
| No | 100% | 99% | +1% | +1% |