Confirmed previous forecast
-0.214775
Relative Brier Score
12
Forecasts
2
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 7 | 81 | 7 | 159 |
| Comments | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1 | 14 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 7 | 20 | 7 | 44 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Definitions | |||||
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Estonia
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Latvia
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Lithuania
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Moldova
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Armenia
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Georgia
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Kazakhstan
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Why do you think you're right?
It´s a fact that some European NATO members (such as France and Germany) will sign new arms contracts with the United States before 31 July 2026 under the argument of its necessity of increasing their defenses against the Russian threat
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Why might you be wrong?
The European NATO member could realize that Ukraine has lost the war against Russia and that Moscow poses no threat to them, so any major defense procurement contract wouldn´t be necessary.
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Do you have any solid open-source information you can share Re: NATO members, and France & Germany, et al? If you have some links about what their intentions are - I would like to review these.
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Why do you think you're right?
With the great powers (US, China and Russia) fighting for control and influence in various regions of the world and powers in decadense (such as France, Germany and UK) trying not to lose preponderance, multilateral organizations (such as the United Nations) lack the capacity to exercise influence and take decisions, so that deploying peacekeeping forces in 2026 seems very difficult.
Why might you be wrong?
Great power could want to use the United Nations to justify an intervention in a country with great relevance for them.