RAND Forecasting Initiative

What will the total amount of seed funding for biotech startups in the EU, UK, and Switzerland be in 2025 and 2026 combined, according to Labiotech?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 01, 2025 01:03AM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $350 million	15%	28%	-13%	+8%
More than or equal to $350 million but less than $500 million	60%	45%	+15%	+4%
More than or equal to $500 million but less than $650 million	25%	22%	+3%	-6%
More than or equal to $650 million but less than $800 million	0%	4%	-4%	-5%
More than or equal to $800 million	0%	1%	-1%	-1%

What will the total amount of seed funding for biotech startups in the U.S. be in 2025 and 2026 combined, according to Labiotech?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 01, 2025 01:27AM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $350 million	45%	42%	+3%	+7%
More than or equal to $350 million but less than $450 million	50%	37%	+14%	+4%
More than or equal to $450 million but less than $550 million	5%	16%	-11%	-6%
More than or equal to $550 million but less than $650 million	0%	5%	-5%	-5%
More than or equal to $650 million	0%	1%	-1%	-1%

What will the total amount of seed funding for biotech startups globally be in 2025 and 2026 combined, according to Labiotech?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 01, 2025 02:53AM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $1 billion	95%	86%	+9%	+26%
More than or equal to $1 billion but less than $1.2 billion	5%	10%	-5%	-19%
More than or equal to $1.2 billion but less than $1.4 billion	0%	2%	-2%	-6%
More than or equal to $1.4 billion but less than $1.6 billion	0%	1%	-1%	-1%
More than or equal to $1.6 billion	0%	0%	+0%	+0%

What will the U.S. Space Force budget be in the FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(15 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 01, 2025 03:00AM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $21.0 billion	19%	15%	+4%	+1%
More than or equal to $21.0 billion but less than $22.5 billion	80%	52%	+28%	+17%
More than or equal to $22.5 billion but less than $23.5 billion	1%	13%	-12%	-3%
More than or equal to $23.5 billion but less than $25.0 billion	0%	8%	-8%	-5%
More than or equal to $25.0 billion	0%	12%	-12%	-10%

Will government agencies in the U.S., EU, or UK classify mirror biology research under dual-use oversight mechanisms by 31 December 2030?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 01, 2025 03:01AM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	50%	45%	+5%	-3%
No	50%	55%	-5%	+3%

Will the Cambodia-Thailand conflict result in at least 20 deaths between 4 November 2025 and 15 January 2026, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 16, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 29, 2025 08:20PM UTC
(17 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	94%	-89%	+89%
No	95%	6%	+89%	-89%

Will scientists successfully create a synthetic cell from chemically synthesized components by 1 January 2035?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 06, 2025 07:36PM UTC
(10 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	10%	-9%	+0%
No	99%	90%	+9%	+0%

Will a new multilateral security agreement involving at least three Middle East and North Africa (MENA) states (excluding Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Israel) be publicly announced by 30 June 2026?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 06, 2025 07:57PM UTC
(10 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	9%	-4%	-2%
No	95%	91%	+4%	+2%

Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(15 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 06, 2025 07:58PM UTC
(10 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
No	99%	98%	+1%	+0%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
17 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 06, 2025 08:00PM UTC
(10 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Estonia	1%	3%	-2%	+0%
Latvia	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
Lithuania	1%	3%	-2%	+0%

Jim

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