Forecasted Questions
Will mirror organisms be formally addressed as a biosecurity concern in official proceedings of at least one of the following international forums (BWC Review Conference, G7/G20 Health/Science ministerial meetings, WHO forums) by 31 December 2030?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 10, 2026 12:23PM UTC
(23 days ago)
Jan 10, 2026 12:23PM UTC
(23 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 90% | 63% | +27% | -1% |
| No | 10% | 37% | -27% | +1% |
Will the FDA have authorized a medical device that incorporates LLM-based functionality by 31 March 2026?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 10, 2026 12:25PM UTC
(23 days ago)
Jan 10, 2026 12:25PM UTC
(23 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 2% | -1% | -1% |
| No | 99% | 98% | +1% | +1% |
Will Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces retake control over Khartoum city by 31 March 2026?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 10, 2026 12:37PM UTC
(23 days ago)
Jan 10, 2026 12:37PM UTC
(23 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 1% | +0% | -1% |
| No | 99% | 99% | +0% | +1% |
Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)
Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 10, 2026 12:37PM UTC
(23 days ago)
Jan 10, 2026 12:37PM UTC
(23 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | 7% | -4% | +0% |
| No | 97% | 93% | +4% | +0% |
Will any national government publicly declare that Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) has been achieved within that country by 31 July 2026?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 31, 2026 03:34PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Jan 31, 2026 03:34PM UTC
(1 day ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 100% | 99% | +1% | +0% |
Will an AI-enabled cyber-attack, attributed to a state actor, cause significant disruption to critical national infrastructure in any G20 country before 1 July 2026?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 31, 2026 03:34PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Jan 31, 2026 03:34PM UTC
(1 day ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 17% | -16% | -2% |
| No | 99% | 83% | +16% | +2% |