RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Dec 02, 2024 04:00PM UTC	Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 2, 2024 and Dec 2, 2024)	0.0
Dec 01, 2024 05:01AM UTC	Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?	0.037417
Nov 30, 2024 04:59AM UTC	Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?	-0.009321
Nov 28, 2024 08:00PM UTC	Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 28, 2024 and Nov 28, 2024)	0.0
Nov 15, 2024 10:00PM UTC	In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 15, 2024 and Nov 15, 2024)	0.000119
Nov 06, 2024 04:00PM UTC	Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 6, 2024 and Nov 6, 2024)	-0.0001
Nov 06, 2024 04:00PM UTC	Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 6, 2024 and Nov 6, 2024)	-0.000106
Nov 02, 2024 04:00PM UTC	Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 2, 2024 and Nov 2, 2024)	0.0
Oct 28, 2024 08:00PM UTC	Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 28, 2024 and Oct 28, 2024)	0.0
Oct 26, 2024 03:29AM UTC	Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or offensive missile-related facility in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between May 10, 2024 and Oct 26, 2024)	0.256439
Oct 15, 2024 10:00PM UTC	In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 15, 2024 and Oct 15, 2024)	0.000127
Oct 06, 2024 04:00PM UTC	Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 6, 2024 and Oct 6, 2024)	0.0
Oct 06, 2024 04:00PM UTC	Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 6, 2024 and Oct 6, 2024)	-0.000147
Oct 02, 2024 04:00PM UTC	Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 2, 2024 and Oct 2, 2024)	0.0
Sep 30, 2024 11:02PM UTC	Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 14, 2024 and Sep 30, 2024)	-0.065227
Sep 30, 2024 11:02PM UTC	Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 12 months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 14, 2024 and Sep 30, 2024)	-0.129795
Sep 28, 2024 08:00PM UTC	Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Aug 28, 2024 and Sep 28, 2024)	0.0
Sep 15, 2024 10:00PM UTC	In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week? (Scores for forecasts between Aug 15, 2024 and Sep 15, 2024)	0.051503
Sep 14, 2024 07:00PM UTC	Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year? (Scores for forecasts between Jun 14, 2024 and Sep 14, 2024)	0.005746
Sep 06, 2024 04:00PM UTC	Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Aug 6, 2024 and Sep 6, 2024)	0.0

Jim

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