125th
Accuracy Rank

JonathanMann

Jonathan Mann
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Forecasted Questions

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
20 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 22, 2025 03:01AM UTC
(28 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Moldova 4% 5%
Armenia 1% 2%
Georgia 1% 3%
Kazakhstan 1% 1%

Will the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index, a measure of U.S. residential home costs, exceed 350 by July 2027?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 22, 2025 04:32AM UTC
(28 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 50% 53%
No 50% 48%

Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?

Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 23, 2025 02:54AM UTC
(27 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 4% 7%
No 96% 93%

Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
19 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(12 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 23, 2025 04:29AM UTC
(27 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 12% 16%
No 88% 84%

Will scientists be able to assemble a ribosome in vitro, composed entirely of synthetic proteins and RNA, without the use of cell-derived materials by 2030?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 27, 2025 04:32AM UTC
(23 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 50% 39%
No 50% 61%

Will a U.S. or U.S.-ally satellite be permanently disabled by another country or organization before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(12 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 27, 2025 04:39AM UTC
(23 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 4% 7%
No 96% 93%

Will Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces retake control over Khartoum city by 31 March 2026?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 30, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(20 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 4% 1%
No 96% 99%
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