I like @404_NOT_FOUND 's simulation and analysis and think 32% is a good base rate. I'll add 5 percentage points for uncertainty and because the overall trend is warming, but I don't think it would be wise to over-index on last year.
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Relative Brier Score
14
Forecasts
3
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 12 | 14 | 199 | 14 | 953 |
| Comments | 11 | 13 | 165 | 13 | 349 |
| Questions Forecasted | 12 | 14 | 43 | 14 | 137 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 3 | 3 | 46 | 3 | 197 |
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New Badge
Star Commenter - Jan 2026
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
38%
Yes
62%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Beyond the random walk there's probably a better way to account for year to year trends, but I'm just applying uncertainty.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
76%
0
21%
1
3%
2 or more
Why do you think you're right?
I agree with most others that we're unlikely to see a C3 before the end of July even in spite of the fact that waters are warming. As the earth warms over time, the distribution of extreme events will shift and things that were previously tail risks happen more frequently in the distribution, but I think the shift will be subtle and take place over decades.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
In any given year, the particular conditions can make a big difference.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
90%
Yes
10%
No
Why do you think you're right?
It seems like Delcy was involved in the overthrow of Maduro and will probably be on the lookout for similar disloyalty. On some level, I expect the Trump administration probably knows that Delcy will need to perform a balancing act and that it will be harder to replace her than Maduro.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
It's early on and there might be others who are conspiring to take control.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
75%
Yes
25%
No
Why do you think you're right?
It makes sense to start with base rates for this. @404_NOT_FOUND did an excellent job here. With that as an anchor, I do actually think it makes sense to go up slightly since China would want to have more exercises so that if / when it does eventually move against Taiwan it wouldn't be obvious. I do appreciate the idea of not wanting to escalate tensions with the US though, so I'm not going too high.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
One way I could imagine this resolving no even with a drill is if China keeps the drills further away.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
23%
Less than 2
37%
More than or equal to 2 but less than 5
25%
More than or equal to 5 but less than 8
15%
More than or equal to 8
Why do you think you're right?
I think it probably mostly comes down to what happens in the next few days. It looks like it's supposed to snow Tuesday and Friday, if there isn't much, I'll update. If there's a lot, I'll update toward the higher bins.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I haven't built a model, I'm just making estimates in my head.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-3%)
Yes
99%
(+3%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Lowering substantially. Although a lot can happen suddenly in battle, I agree with other comments that territorial progress is nowhere near where it would need to be for this to become a reality before the deadline.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
This is one where I could imagine surprises I hadn't considered, but I think my 1% covers that.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Yes
96%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
43%
(-7%)
Yes
57%
(+7%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
I was too high previously. Upon reflection, I was probably substituting an easier question for the actual question. I think maybe I was answering an "assuming nothing gets side-tracked" version of the question.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I haven't applied a base rates framing to this question and I think it would be good if I could figure out how to do that. It would probably give me a better estimate.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
@Rene provided a good analysis which roughly matches my own intuition. I'm actually probably even more bullish. I see the job cuts as restructuring and I don't see them as indicative of underlying problems.
Why might you be wrong?
Something that threw me for a bit of a loop on this one is that the analysts who set up the questions are usually pretty good at having the bulk of the the probability mass clustered around the central bins and it made me wonder if I was missing something.