JonathanMann

Lowering to 7% after a few days of negotiations and after listening to Rubio's comments. It sounds like they're not there yet, but I think the US is doing what it can to apply pressure.

In the past 20 years, North Korea has had 6 nuclear tests. Splitting that into 6 month increments gives a base rate of 15% (6 tests in 40 six-month periods). I agree with the crowd that things are relatively more calm now and North Korea might not want draw attention to itself, but I do expect that at some point they'll want another test and I don't want to deviate too far from the base rate.

I thought this analysis by the Swift Centre was informative, and I'll remain at 1% as I don't think serious action is likely before 2027. I don't think China will launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan in the next six months, but I think a "test blockade" (while also unlikely) is possible. While I think a short blockade is not a good overall strategic move for China, it could provide information on how the US and Taiwan would react.  There is also a fair bit of time within this forecast window between winter storms and monsoon season, so I'm comfortable leaving 1%.

It seems like even if there is a ceasefire, coalition troop commitments would not be part of it, but, instead, security guarantees seem more likely. Even still, a peace deal seems unlikely to be agreed upon by the end of the year and even if coalition troops were part of it, even if it happened tomorrow, it would probably take longer than the end of the year to have them deployed.

My gut tells me that recent talks of a peace framework will probably fall apart when the fine points are discussed, but it seems like Russia and Ukraine have been getting closer and closer, so I think there is a real chance. I would be at 8%, but there's a lot I don't know, so I'll add a few percentage points to the penultimate bin. 

This doesn't seem like a priority right now. I expect the focus to be on Russia / Ukraine for most of the rest of the year. I also think most people can't tell how much smarter / better models are getting and so the salience of this is dropping and will probably continue to fall until some other obvious capability is unlocked.