Forecasted Questions
Will the European “Coalition of the Willing” deploy forces to Ukraine in 2025?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 29, 2025 11:56PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Nov 29, 2025 11:56PM UTC
(7 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 100% | 99% | +1% | +0% |
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 12:40AM UTC
(7 days ago)
Nov 30, 2025 12:40AM UTC
(7 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | Nov 30, 2025 to May 30, 2026 | Dec 30, 2025 | 1% | +0% | -1% |
| No | 99% | Nov 30, 2025 to May 30, 2026 | Dec 30, 2025 | 99% | +0% | +1% |
Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 12:41AM UTC
(7 days ago)
Nov 30, 2025 12:41AM UTC
(7 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | Nov 30, 2025 to May 30, 2026 | Dec 30, 2025 | 1% | +2% | +0% |
| No | 97% | Nov 30, 2025 to May 30, 2026 | Dec 30, 2025 | 99% | -2% | +0% |
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 12:56AM UTC
(7 days ago)
Nov 30, 2025 12:56AM UTC
(7 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 7% | Nov 30, 2025 to May 30, 2026 | Dec 30, 2025 | 2% | +5% | +0% |
| No | 93% | Nov 30, 2025 to May 30, 2026 | Dec 30, 2025 | 98% | -5% | +0% |
When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?
Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts
11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 04:43AM UTC
(5 days ago)
Dec 01, 2025 04:43AM UTC
(5 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025 | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |
| 1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025 | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |
| 1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| 1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025 | 7% | 2% | +5% | +0% |
| Not before 2026 | 93% | 98% | -5% | +0% |