122nd
Accuracy Rank

JonathanMann

Jonathan Mann
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Forecasted Questions

Will the European “Coalition of the Willing” deploy forces to Ukraine in 2025?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 29, 2025 11:56PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 1%
No 100% 99%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 12:40AM UTC
(7 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 1% Nov 30, 2025 to May 30, 2026 Dec 30, 2025 1%
No 99% Nov 30, 2025 to May 30, 2026 Dec 30, 2025 99%

Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 12:41AM UTC
(7 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 3% Nov 30, 2025 to May 30, 2026 Dec 30, 2025 1%
No 97% Nov 30, 2025 to May 30, 2026 Dec 30, 2025 99%

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 12:56AM UTC
(7 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 7% Nov 30, 2025 to May 30, 2026 Dec 30, 2025 2%
No 93% Nov 30, 2025 to May 30, 2026 Dec 30, 2025 98%

When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?

Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 04:43AM UTC
(5 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025 0% 0%
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025 0% 0%
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025 0% 0%
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025 7% 2%
Not before 2026 93% 98%
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