Keegan-Harris

Keegan Harris
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 Definitions

Most Active Topics:
Geopolitical Security

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My First Question

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New Prediction
Keegan-Harris
made their 1st forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on May 3, 2025 06:01PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
Yes
Apr 3, 2025 to Oct 3, 2025
95%
No
Apr 3, 2025 to Oct 3, 2025
Why do you think you're right?

China currently lacks the military capacity and political willpower to pull of a successful invasion or blockade if the US comes to Taiwan's aid. 

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Why might you be wrong?

It is unlikely, but if China gets the sense that the Trump administration may not come to Taiwan's aid, they could implement a (partial) blockade of the island.

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