Kuona

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0.057783

Relative Brier Score

17

Forecasts

0

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 6 17 17 17
Comments 0 0 3 3 3
Questions Forecasted 0 6 9 9 9
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 0 0 0
 Definitions
New Prediction
Kuona
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
4% (+1%)
Yes
Oct 17, 2024 to Apr 17, 2025
96% (-1%)
No
Oct 17, 2024 to Apr 17, 2025

Still think US election effects very uncertain. 

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New Prediction
Kuona
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
53% (0%)
Yes
Oct 17, 2024 to Apr 17, 2025
47% (0%)
No
Oct 17, 2024 to Apr 17, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Kuona
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
12% (0%)
Yes
Oct 17, 2024 to Oct 17, 2025
88% (0%)
No
Oct 17, 2024 to Oct 17, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Kuona
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
94% (0%)
Yes
6% (0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Kuona
made their 3rd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
20% (+12%)
Yes
Oct 17, 2024 to Apr 17, 2025
80% (-12%)
No
Oct 17, 2024 to Apr 17, 2025
Expecting over-correction
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New Prediction

Very unlikely due to ongoing fighting and entrenched political differences and external influence. But instability is high and events are unpredictable. 

Files
New Prediction
Kuona
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Nov 4, 2024 03:49PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
38% (+2%)
Yes
Oct 4, 2024 to Apr 4, 2025
62% (-2%)
No
Oct 4, 2024 to Apr 4, 2025

Slight increase due to ongoing escalation. US influence on Israel uncertain. 

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