Confirmed previous forecast
0.057783
Relative Brier Score
17
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Forecasts | 0 | 6 | 17 | 17 | 17 |
Comments | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Questions Forecasted | 0 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Definitions |
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
53%
(0%)
Yes
Oct 17, 2024 to Apr 17, 2025
47%
(0%)
No
Oct 17, 2024 to Apr 17, 2025
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
12%
(0%)
Yes
Oct 17, 2024 to Oct 17, 2025
88%
(0%)
No
Oct 17, 2024 to Oct 17, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
94%
(0%)
Yes
6%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Yes
96%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
20%
(+12%)
Yes
Oct 17, 2024 to Apr 17, 2025
80%
(-12%)
No
Oct 17, 2024 to Apr 17, 2025
Expecting over-correction
Files
New Question Suggested
New Question Suggested
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
Very unlikely due to ongoing fighting and entrenched political differences and external influence. But instability is high and events are unpredictable.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 4, 2024 03:49PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
38%
(+2%)
Yes
Oct 4, 2024 to Apr 4, 2025
62%
(-2%)
No
Oct 4, 2024 to Apr 4, 2025
Slight increase due to ongoing escalation. US influence on Israel uncertain.
Files
Still think US election effects very uncertain.