There's always a chance it will happen, but it's a very complicated scientific advancement; I think it will take more time.
-0.060333
Relative Brier Score
32
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 1 | 15 | 32 | 32 | 32 |
| Comments | 1 | 10 | 23 | 23 | 23 |
| Questions Forecasted | 1 | 15 | 21 | 21 | 21 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
Yes
80%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
There's always a chance it will happen, but it's a very complicated scientific advancement; I think it will take more time.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
Yes
70%
No
Why do you think you're right?
There's always a chance it will happen, but it's a very complicated scientific advancement; I think it will take more time.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
There's always a chance it will happen, but it's a very complicated scientific advancement; I think it will take more time.
Files
New Badge
Star Commenter - Oct 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
9%
Moldova
8%
Armenia
4%
Georgia
5%
Kazakhstan
Why do you think you're right?
With the wear and tear of the war against Ukraine, I find it very difficult that Russia would dare to attack another country.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If the war with Ukraine changes drastically and he wins, he might dare to take on more countries.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
Estonia
25%
Latvia
15%
Lithuania
Why do you think you're right?
I see it as very unlikely. Russia is very worn out by the war in Ukraine and has not yet won. I find it very difficult for it to dare to take on other countries.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If the war with Ukraine changes drastically and he wins, he might dare to take on more countries.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
70%
Yes
30%
No
Why do you think you're right?
With the growth of AIs, it will be necessary to have audits for their implementation, and the easiest way to ensure they are quality is to provide these tax incentives. There's everything for this to happen.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Big Tech may not allow it and with the weight it has, there is a possibility of failure to enact the law.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
35%
Yes
65%
No
Why do you think you're right?
There is a possibility that there will be more sanctions, but with what happened in Israel and Palestine, I don't see it as plausible.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
There is a possibility that there will be more sanctions, but with what happened in Israel and Palestine, I don't see it as plausible.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
41%
Yes
59%
No
Why do you think you're right?
There are possibilities, especially including Taiwan, but I see it as unlikely.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
There are possibilities, especially including Taiwan, but I see it as unlikely.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
The AI industry in the United States remains very strong, and globally, it is not in the US's best interest to limit that industry with the competition from China.
Why might you be wrong?
The AI industry in the United States remains very strong, and globally, it is not in the US's best interest to limit that industry with the competition from China.