Trying to negotiate peace in Ukraine in a serious way, and they took a bad enough beating there
2.083415
Relative Brier Score
89
Forecasts
2
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 18 | 89 | 89 | 89 |
| Comments | 0 | 11 | 60 | 60 | 60 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 18 | 31 | 31 | 31 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
Star Commenter - Dec 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-4%)
Estonia
1%
(-4%)
Latvia
1%
(-4%)
Lithuania
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Putin probably still sees these states as part of the Russian Empire with little sovereignty of their own (not unlike his views on Ukraine)
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-4%)
Togo
Why do you think you're right?
Based on timeline, don't think it will happen
Files
Why might you be wrong?
instable situation
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 30, 2025 to Jun 30, 2026
100%
(0%)
No
Dec 30, 2025 to Jun 30, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
89%
(0%)
Less than 30 days
11%
(0%)
30 days
0%
(0%)
31-60 days
0%
(0%)
61-90 days
0%
(0%)
91 days or more
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-35%)
Yes
95%
(+35%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Too much division in the region amid instability and shifting players
Files
Why might you be wrong?
There seems to be always talk of this, but rarely happening in a formal, diplomatic way
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(-5%)
Yes
Dec 30, 2025 to Jun 30, 2027
100%
(+5%)
No
Dec 30, 2025 to Jun 30, 2027
Why do you think you're right?
Working towards peace, not WWIII, right now, it seems
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Peace talks go sour in an epic way ... or an attack meant for Ukraine misses and hits a NATO country
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(-87%)
Yes
97%
(+87%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
I think I understood the question wrong, so leaning toward the mean of the group here.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Lots of daily action still in the AI space, happening daily
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Timeline, unlikely to happen in 24 hours
Why might you be wrong?
They're full of surprises
I second @michal_dubrawski . Your forecast here will expire on June 30, 2026, not on Jan 1...