NiftyForecasts

Confirmed previous forecast

Expanding their footprint in Africa does not seem to be a priority considering the prolonged conflict in Ukraine. New organizational structure within the Russian Ministry of Defense, feels like a move that would slow down aggressive expansion of operations in Africa. No news of a push into Togo as of 10/17

https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/entities/publication/4cffb130-9a22-4e6d-9698-f138782a7357 ... After IMF 2024 intervention Egypt has been on a steady economic recovery 

As of 10/4/25 the rhetoric is not heating up for a major operation and the US is still engaged with China on numerous diplomatic efforts 

High likelihood of question being voided, but peace efforts continue and there will hopefully be an actual ceasefire one day to start, but betting one a short one if, any at all

Dominance of Major Power Rivalries: The primary security dynamics in the MENA region are currently centered on the rivalries involving the excluded major powers (Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Israel). Most security cooperation, whether formal or informal (e.g., Abraham Accords-related multilateralism, the Saudi-Pakistan defense pact), either includes one of these major actors or is explicitly designed to counter one of them. The security interests of smaller states are often tied to, and sometimes dictated by, these larger blocs, making a truly independent, three-state agreement less likely to be a priority or to succeed.

Existing, Partially Functional Structures: The MENA region already has multiple, albeit often dysfunctional, multilateral bodies like the Arab League, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), and the Arab Maghreb Union. Creating a new security pact outside of these frameworks, yet also excluding the four most powerful security actors, suggests a niche, sub-regional focus. While possible, the impetus for a new, formal, non-major-power-led security arrangement appears low compared to other, more pressing diplomatic goals (e.g., reconstruction, de-escalation, economic corridor development).

Regional Fragmentation and Transactionalism: The North Africa (Maghreb) and Levant sub-regions are marked by significant internal political instability, conflict, and a trend toward "tactical diplomacy" and transactional, bilateral deals rather than ambitious, comprehensive multilateral frameworks. For example, North African states prioritize narrowly-scoped, short-term deals on issues like migration and energy, which are less likely to evolve quickly into a formal, new multilateral security pact.

Confirmed previous forecast

Confirmed previous forecast

Confirmed previous forecast