Confirmed previous forecast
0.733384
Relative Brier Score
30
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 30 | 30 | 30 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 26 | 26 | 26 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 18 | 18 | 18 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Quickfire Forecasts
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
45%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 1
50%
(0%)
Between 2 and 3, inclusive
5%
(0%)
Between 4 and 5, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 6
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 1349
5%
(-74%)
Between 1350 and 1499, inclusive
94%
(+83%)
Between 1500 and 1649, inclusive
1%
(-9%)
Between 1650 and 1799, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 1800
Why do you think you're right?
Updating per recent CDC counts.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Updating per recent CDC counts.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
(0%)
Yes
85%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Badge
Star Commenter - Aug 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Yes
90%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Based on recent open-source reporting and ongoing diplomatic efforts, there is a low probability that the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People’s Republic of China will engage in a lethal confrontation prior to September 30, 2025. As the BBC noted in July 2025: “After years of border tensions, India and China appear to be gradually moving towards resetting ties…The visit of two senior Indian officials to China late last month was seen as a sign of a thaw in bilateral relations” (BBC, July 9, 2025, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cly25ndp8kwo ). In addition, the Times of India reported this month (August 21, 2025) that “Both sides agreed to reopen trade through the three designated passes — Lipulekh, Shipki La, and Nathu La — to boost cross-border economic activity.” (https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/india-china-ties-how-both-countries-are-planning-to-resolve-border-dispute-chinese-envoy-explains/articleshow/123436043.cms)
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Why might you be wrong?
Despite ongoing de-escalation efforts noted, there could still be a risk that misperceptions or individual/group actions along the disputed border could trigger a larger confrontation as it did in 2020 (War on the Rocks, June 2020, https://warontherocks.com/2020/06/chinas-strategic-assessment-of-the-ladakh-clash ). Also, the border remains “ill-defined” and often “brings soldiers face to face at many points, sometimes sparking skirmishes” (BBC, July 9, 2025, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cly25ndp8kwo). With “over 100,000 troops remain[ing] deployed on both sides” and that “rebuilding political trust will take time” (Carnegie, Dec 2024, https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2024/12/negotiating-the-india-china-standoff-2020-2024?lang=en), there is still the chance for a localized incident to escalate into a wider lethal confrontation.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-20%)
Less than or equal to 1349
79%
(+38%)
Between 1350 and 1499, inclusive
11%
(-19%)
Between 1500 and 1649, inclusive
10%
(+1%)
Between 1650 and 1799, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 1800
Why do you think you're right?
Updating per recent cdc data (https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html#cdc_data_surveillance_section_5-yearly-measles-cases)
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Though unlikely in this timeline, the recent news highlighting the revitalization of the HHS/Task Force on Safer Childhood Vaccines (https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2025/08/14/rfk-vaccine-safety-task-force/) may affect could have infection-rate implications.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
updating per crowd
Why might you be wrong?
updating per crowd