Forecasted Questions
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 12:06AM UTC
(5 days ago)
Dec 01, 2025 12:06AM UTC
(5 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 35% | Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2026 | Jan 1, 2026 | 1% | +34% | +1% |
| No | 65% | Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2026 | Jan 1, 2026 | 99% | -34% | -1% |
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 12:06AM UTC
(5 days ago)
Dec 01, 2025 12:06AM UTC
(5 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moldova | 65% | 6% | +59% | +0% |
| Armenia | 35% | 2% | +33% | +0% |
| Georgia | 50% | 3% | +47% | +0% |
| Kazakhstan | 20% | 1% | +19% | 0% |
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 12:06AM UTC
(5 days ago)
Dec 01, 2025 12:06AM UTC
(5 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 53% | Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2026 | Jan 1, 2026 | 2% | +51% | +0% |
| No | 47% | Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2026 | Jan 1, 2026 | 98% | -51% | +0% |
Will a new multilateral security agreement involving at least three Middle East and North Africa (MENA) states (excluding Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Israel) be publicly announced by 30 June 2026?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 12:06AM UTC
(5 days ago)
Dec 01, 2025 12:06AM UTC
(5 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 63% | 11% | +52% | -2% |
| No | 37% | 89% | -52% | +2% |
How many of the 19 G20 member countries will have recognized the State of Palestine before 1 Feb 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Feb 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 01:27AM UTC
(5 days ago)
Dec 01, 2025 01:27AM UTC
(5 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| 18 | 10% | 1% | +9% | +0% |
| 17 | 40% | 1% | +39% | +0% |
| 16 or fewer | 50% | 99% | -49% | +0% |