22nd
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Perspectus

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Feb 15, 2024 11:30AM UTC Will any of Meta's 2023 threat disruption reports indicate that a large language model may have been used to conduct an influence operation? -0.344042
Feb 02, 2024 10:00PM UTC When will ExxonMobil next positively mention algae-based biofuels in its quarterly financial report? -0.000168
Feb 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC Will the Center for Strategic and International Studies record a “significant cyber incident” involving quantum computing in 2023? -0.000231
Jan 19, 2024 03:26PM UTC Will a moon mission land safely on the moon between 1 September 2023 and 31 May 2024, inclusive? -0.039257
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 9,000 or more protests and riots in Pakistan? -0.02681
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 10,000 or more fatalities due to battles in Yemen? -0.000119
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 700 or more fatalities from protests, riots, and violence against civilians in Iran? -0.013252
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 2,000 or more fatalities due to battles in South Sudan? -0.008628
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 2,000 or more fatalities due to battles in Democratic Republic of Congo? -0.176192
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, how many fatalities from violence against civilians in Mexico will ACLED record? -0.058344
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 1,000 or more fatalities in Syria from remote violence and battles involving Turkish security forces? -0.000096
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC From 1 September 2022 to 31 August 2023, will ACLED record 1,000 or more civilian fatalities in India? -0.000029
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC From 1 September 2022 to 31 August 2023, will ACLED record 800 or more civilian fatalities in El Salvador? -0.000022
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 200 or more fatalities from battles and remote violence involving Kyrgyz and Tajik security forces? -0.001243
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 5,000 fatalities from battles and remote violence between Azerbaijani and Armenian security forces? -0.002007
Jan 01, 2024 05:00PM UTC Will United Airlines announce that they are using sustainable aviation fuel produced by Cemvita Factory by 31 Dec 2023? -0.013699
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president by 31 December 2023? 0.081102
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC Will OpenAI release a fifth generation of its generative pre-trained transformer model (GPT-5) to the general public in 2023? -0.000632
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC Will YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, or Twitter enable digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) on photos or videos in 2023? -0.067716
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC Will Ariel Henry cease to be either acting president or president of Haiti through an irregular transition on or before 31 December 2023? -0.016728
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