From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 1,000 or more fatalities in Syria from remote violence and battles involving Turkish security forces?

Started Feb 10, 2023 08:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC

This question will resolve using data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data project (ACLED). A spreadsheet containing select columns from events is available here. This spreadsheet will be updated monthly as new data become available. At the time of question launch, ACLED has recorded the following fatality counts:

  • 2017: 683
  • 2018: 1381
  • 2019: 360
  • 2020: 455
  • 2021: 179
  • 2022: 569
  • 2023: 53

Additional Reading: 

Resolution Notes

ACLED recorded 477 or more fatalities in Syria from remote violence and battles involving Turkish security forces

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.04%
No 99.96%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 45
Average for questions older than 6 months: 60
Number of Forecasts 406
Average for questions older than 6 months: 224
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.00207
2.
-0.001367
4.
-0.00081
5.
-0.000611

Consensus Trend

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